Two short years after the massive get-out-the vote efforts by both both political parties, some realities are setting in. American voters need something to get excited about, otherwise a majority of us don’t bother to vote. According to the Center for for the Study of the American Electorate, through September of 2010, Republicans cast have 4 million more votes than Democrats in primary elections. Overall, less than one-quarter of eligible U.S. voters participated in primary elections.

It is an interesting dynamic. Imagine if everyone who didn’t trust government decided to do something about it and actually vote? A recent Wall Street Journal/NBC poll suggests that America’s confidence in big institutions, including government,  is dissipating. Twenty years ago, 42 percent of Americans trusted the government to do what was right. That number is down to 25 percent. Thirty-one percent said they “almost never” trust the government to do the right thing. While we take time to complain, we can’t take time to vote.

This lack of trust in government is,  of course,  at odds with the Obama presidency and Baldacci governorship. In an era of so-called “big government,” bank bailouts (which I don’t support), stimulus and jobs bills (which I do support) and healthcare reform (which I do support), we’re asking folks who don’t trust government to get behind more government. Huh —  Democrats wonder why their electorate is angry.

Mainers echo the concerns and angst that is felt across the nation. While Mitchell and LePage handily won in June, voter frustration is being felt on both sides of the aisle. At a time when we truly needed to hear about how candidates were going to get us through the most difficult economic period in decades, the candidates and media lost track. Stories and headlines focused on driving records, dodging property taxes, riding the coattails of past presidents and disrespecting current ones.

With voter apathy high, a prime opportunity presented itself for an independent candidate for governor. Fortunately for both parties, it is unlikely any of them will provide a threat to either Mitchell or LePage. The number of unhappy Dems siding with Eliot Cutler likely equals the number of unhappy Republicans who will also side with Cutler. The argument that a vote for Cutler is a vote against either LePage or Mitchell just doesn’t hold water; it assumes that every Cutler vote would have otherwise been cast for LePage or Mitchell.  Not likely.

In the end, I believe that Libby Mitchell will be our next governor. Terrified of what Maine would look like under LePage, some Dems who might otherwise support Cutler will take the “safe pick.” Independents who have propped up Sen. Collins and Sen. Snowe will see LePage’s lack of polish and childish rants as something that Mainer just shouldn’t do. Without the Snowe/Collins Independents, LePage loses by 3 to 5 percentage points.

Across the state Democrats will loose some ground in the Maine House and the Maine Senate. At the local level GOPers won’t be afraid to support Tea-Party- sounding candidates. At the Blaine House, those ideals are too out of touch.

Jason Levesque will not defeat Congressman Michaud. Levesque, a chronic complainer, lacks vision and ideas of his own. His website reads like a national GOP line card. All you do is “insert candidate name here,” kind of a political “MADLIB.” Diehard Republicans will support him, few others will.

Maine isn’t likely to support a casino; it isn’t right for Oxford (or Lewiston). Most Mainers realize a casino in Maine during good economic times is a bad idea; euring bad economic times the idea is dreadful. With the Oxford proposal comes too much small print, too many uncertainties.

When you wake up on November 3rd, surprised by the results or not, will you be proud of the fact that you voted or a complainer who had something more important to do?