I used to think no mathematical formula inspired as much confusion and discomfort as the Heal Point system.
Used to determine seeding for almost every high school sport sanctioned by the Maine Principals’ Association, the Heals have held sway for more than 60 years.
The Heals’ chief strength, as I understand it, is that nobody has concocted a better method.
Well, football has tried. With the exception of the one division that is compact enough to allow a round-robin schedule (Western Class B), all the others calculate Crabtree points.
Devised by a distinguished gent named Aloysius Quinsigamond Crabtree (OK, I made that up), the namesake formula is relatively simple.
To calculate your favorite team’s Crabtree index, simply add its winning percentage and the combined winning percentage of its opponents. Then multiply the result by 100 or move the decimal two digits to the right, whichever makes you happier.
For example, Edward Little was 5-3 (.6250). Its Pine Tree Conference foes were a combined 25-39 (.390625). The Red Eddies’ Crabtree index is 101.5625.
Easy like Sunday morning, no?
Um, apparently, no. No it isn’t. Because I have heard/read/witnessed more grousing and errant conjecture about the Crabtrees in the last seven days than goes in one ear and out the other regarding the Heals in a year.
EL fans don’t understand how their team stayed No. 7 in the Eastern Class A standings despite lowering the boom on Lewiston, which slid only one spot from No. 3 to No. 4.
Dirigo followers can’t comprehend how Oak Hill is No. 5 while the Cougars are No. 6 in Western C, despite a better record and a 21-0 road win over the Raiders only three weeks earlier.
Livermore Falls loyalists aren’t sure how they lost out on a tiebreaker to Maranacook for the eighth and final Western C spot. I mean, heck, the Andies just beat Jay, which beat Winthrop, which beat Maranacook, which appeared in “The River Wild” with Kevin Bacon.
Three things y’all need to know about the Crabtree formula:
1) It doesn’t care a whit about quality wins.
EL doesn’t any more credit for beating Lewiston than it did for dispatching winless Mt. Ararat. The only benefit is the improvement of the Eddies’ won-lost record from 4-4 to 5-3. In fact, the strength of schedule side of EL’s equation even takes a small hit because of Lewiston’s loss.
2) It weighs your entire body of work.
Lewiston is 6-2 (.750), giving them a hefty advantage over EL at (5-3). LHS also beat Cony and Brunswick, both of which (wait for it) beat Edward Little. Simply put, the Eddies had their chances not to travel to Bangor for a quarterfinal battle with The U.
3) It rewards some teams and punishes others for one major factor that is out of everyone’s control. That is, strength of schedule.
Eastern A and Western C each operate in a two-division format with crossover games played in a home-and-home, two-year arrangement. Pine Tree Conference teams play three such crossovers. Campbell Conference clubs tackle two of them. Because the teams in your division play one another and thus wind up with the same strength of schedule there, the crossovers are all-important to the Crabtrees.
Here’s the reason EL couldn’t rise above Cony, Messalonskee or Lewiston and why Dirigo didn’t keep Oak Hill in the rear-view mirror. Not only did Cony (4-4) beat EL, it crossed over against Bangor, Lawrence and Mt. Blue, the top three teams in the north. The Eddies pushed unbeaten Lawrence to the limit at home, but they also got saddled with road games against Skowhegan (1-7) and Brewer (0-8).
Oak Hill (4-4) played the top two teams in Campbell South: Yarmouth (8-0) and Lisbon (7-1). Dirigo crossed over with Freeport (3-5) and Old Orchard Beach (2-6). That dramatic difference in opponents’ strength was enough for the Raiders to overcome the disadvantage of one fewer victory.
I’ve also been asked why the Campbell Conference releases Heals all year long when it awards playoff spots by Crabtrees. Good question.
The answer: It’s the second tiebreaker after head-to-head. Maranacook beat Livermore Falls, 30-27. So there was no need to move down the ladder to Heals, which would have given the Andies the edge.
Why not Heals for the first criteria in football? History shows that they work well for basketball, soccer and other sports with a 14, 16 or 18-game season.
Eight games is too small a sample, creating some bizarre outcomes. Neither I nor anyone affiliated with Mountain Valley will forget a year in the mid-1990s, when the Falcons were 5-3 and convincingly beat Kennebunk. Yet the Rams, who were 3-5, got the final Western B semifinal spot.
And how many times have you looked at the Heal Point standings early in basketball season and seen a 1-3 or 3-4 team inexplicably at No. 1? The Heals need a wider spectrum of games to correct themselves.
Until the divisions are small enough so everybody plays everybody else (and not even realignment will cure that), Crabtrees are the best mechanism we’ve got.
Just be thankful everything has been relatively tidy so far this fall, with no three-way ties settled by coin flips because nothing else could break the deadlock.
Talk about a solution designed to make people Crabby.
Kalle Oakes is a staff columnist. He scored higher in math than verbal on his SATs.
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