OXFORD — The Oxford Hills School District student population will increase by only two students in the next 10 years, according to a South Portland-based study.
According to the report developed by Planning Decision Inc., which was presented to school directors at a recent meeting, the student population will rise from its current 3,363 to 3,365 districtwide in the next 10 years.
“The study provides an assessment of economic trends, population trends, residential development trends, relationship of residential development to school enrollment and a summary regarding these trends and relations,” Superintendent Rick Colpitts said.
But what type of information do the surveyors look at to make such specific projections and how accurate are their projections historically?
“The last study I dealt with was done in 1994,” Colpitts said. “At the time, I was suspicious of the data because the numbers on a daily basis were off. Over time, the statistics were actually very accurate. I would guess that our overall population will be fairly static based on the projected numbers.”
In the case of the Oxford Hills School District, everything from how many fertile females reside in the eight towns to where residents work and the number of year-round housing units were calculated over a 10-year and occasionally a 20-year time span. Data was collected from the 2000 U.S. Census, the Maine Office of Research and Vital Statistics, local code enforcement agent interviews and other records.
For example, the study states that while there was a fertile female population of 3,884 (defined as women between the ages of 18 and 45) in 1990, by 2009 the district experienced a 3.7 percent or 140 loss in fertile females. With the decline of the number of fertile women in the district and an increase in the numbers of women over the age of 45, the surveyors were able to use those numbers to calculate population trends of the school district.
Residential development trends also influenced projected student enrollment. According to the study, the school district towns had 7,926 year-round housing units in 1990 and 9,077 by the year 2000, an increase of 14.5 percent or 1,151 units during that decade.
The surveyors relied in part on conversations with local code enforcement agents from each town who record the building permits to build more recent information on housing. The numbers show that although housing units increased during the first part of the decade, in the last three years they have declined , showing only an average of 86 new units each year.
“Large-scale residential development has not occurred recently in any of the (Oxford Hills School District) communities, and none is proposed for the future,” the report said. Surveyors found that Harrison has five new subdivisions in progress but no lots have been sold, and Otisfield has seen only some development of second homes.
Using these figures and others, the surveyors developed an in-house cohort survival model that analyzed the historical trend between entering first-grade class sizes and historical trends in each grade level. Based on those numbers, the survey concludes that elementary school enrollment will increase slightly and middle and high school numbers will decrease slightly.
“The projections projected for the (kindergarten) through grade six population have a cushion of plus or minus 10 percent and 5 percent at the middle and high school,” Colpitts explained.
The report, which was developed for the school district as part of a funding application for a major construction project, will be used for future planning and take into account everything from whether a school building will sustain its future enrollment to how the student population will affect state revenues coming into the district.
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