The U.S. is betting that the global trading system’s economic rewards ultimately will convince China’s leaders to curb their “imperialism with Chinese characteristics.” That’s the phrase U.S. defense analyst Dr. Michael Metcalf used in 2011 to describe what he saw as a disturbing shift in Chinese strategy, from one of “survival” to one of “development.” […]
Austin Bay
Turkish election a model in temperance
In nationwide parliamentary elections held June 7, Turkish voters rejected President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s “soft Islamist” power grab. In doing so, Turks strengthened their secular republic’s democratic system and provided the globe with an example of democratic temperance. Turkey deserves congratulations and, in the world’s hard corners, political emulation. Using the ballot box — change […]
The wisdom of having trip wires
Occasionally referred to as The Three Musketeers Clause, the NATO treaty’s Article 5 exemplifies the hard diplomacy that won the Cold War. The daring French musketeers promised one for all and all for one. Article 5 made a similar serious commitment. Unfortunately, in 2015, as Vladimir Putin’s Kremlin attacks Ukraine, NATO’s Eastern European members —particularly […]
Close air support needed to counter ISIL
On May 20, in an “on background” briefing, a “senior State Department official” discussed the recent Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) attack on Ramadi, the capital of Iraq’s Anbar Province. Credit the senior official for setting straight Ramadi’s history. Iraqi defenders didn’t just bug out. ISIL struck Ramadi in January 2014, six […]
Media have to ask the right questions
Determining actionable intelligence, assessing threats (current and emerging), implementing lines of operation to counter threats and forestalling damaging surprise (a process that includes accounting for enemy deception operations) are persistent national security challenges every presidential administration, from George Washington’s to Barack Obama’s, has confronted. Some administrations have confronted them more effectively than others. Effectively addressing […]
Election year could bring U.S. challenge
Foreign foes see U.S. presidential election years as opportunities to test and bedevil — which is a good reason to suspect 2016 will present the American electorate with a violent international challenge. Though this column sketches two representative scenarios, they are not predictions. No one can predict a specific crisis will occur at a specific […]
Austin Bay: Okinawa cost both sides dearly
Okinawa’s ground battle began April 1, 1945, when four American divisions simultaneously assaulted the 65-mile-long island. With two U.S. Marine and two U.S. Army divisions debarking, the attack was one of the Pacific theater’s largest amphibious assaults. U.S. commanders, however, were planning another Pacific D-Day, one that would far exceed Okinawa and the Philippines’ invasions […]
Austin Bay: Gallipoli: 100 years of consequences
In Australia and New Zealand, the annual holiday Australia and New Zealand Army Corps Day commemorates the service of their soldiers who died in battle. ANZAC Day, April 25, is intimately tied to the WWI battle of Gallipoli. On April 25, 1915, sea-borne British Commonwealth and French forces debarked on Turkey’s Gallipoli Peninsula and the […]
Austin Bay: Past wars offer lessons for today’s battles
Sobering tales of apocalyptic battle, where good and evil fight to an end-of-history finish, pervade religious texts. Romantic variations energize the arts, particularly literature, drama and film. The final battle is a resilient plot device. Boy meets girl tops it … maybe. Hollywood’s classic Western version pits an honest sheriff against a cruel, devilish gunslinger. […]
Austin Bay: Putin-era Kremlin tests NATO solidarity
Denmark’s Bornholm Island apparently troubles Vladimir Putin’s 21st-century Kremlin war planners as much as it vexed their Cold War Soviet-era predecessors. More on Bornholm’s specifics in a moment, but first let’s cover one more example of Putin Russia’s aggressive wrongdoing. According to an open-source Danish security assessment, in mid-June 2014, three months after Putin’s Kremlin […]