For months, complaints were rife that the outlook for the future was murky. The operative word was uncertainty.

Whenever consumers were asked about their mood, they mentioned a sense of unease, offering a list of concerns that included prospects for war, terrorism, the price of motor fuel and setbacks from the collapse of the Internet bubble.

With the situation in Iraq largely stabilized, will such uncertainties be quickly set aside? Some answers will be forthcoming Tuesday with the Conference Board’s report of May consumer confidence.

Chicago economist Peter Glassman is looking for a jump in prevailing attitudes for a second month in a row. He isn’t expecting the confidence reading to zoom, as it did in April, when it rose to 81.0 from 61.4 on optimism over successes in the Iraq war. But he does expect another advance in the index, of perhaps six or seven points.

“The mood of Americans is improving, and it should continue to get better as the summer proceeds,” said Glassman, of Bank One Corp.

He said current expectations remain muted, but consumers are growing more confident about the future.

“We can see a pickup in the stock market, where profits are getting stronger and will continue to show growth through the rest of this year and next year,” Glassman said. “The attitude among Americans is that they should continue to tough it out a bit longer, then watch things improve.”

Gloomy talk about the potential for deflation has filled the air for several weeks, even though one key segment of the economy remains in the midst of a price boom. The residential real estate market is creating plenty of sticker shock, to a point where buyers get nervous about monthly mortgage payments and being “house poor.”

Watch for no letup in the torrid pace in Tuesday’s report of April new home sales. Analysts expect an annualized rate of more than 1 million units for the fifth month out of the last seven.

At the same time, watch for a modest rise in resales of existing homes, to a red-hot annualized rate of about 5.8 million.

Economist Geoffrey Somes of Fleet Boston Financial notes that while housing starts fell 6.8 percent in April, the decline is not a great cause for concern because home construction appears healthy.

“Builders frankly like what they see in the present housing market and are even more optimistic about developments over the next six months,” Somes said.

“And why not? Record low mortgage rates (30-year mortgages have dropped closer to 5 percent recently) are keeping housing demand roaring.”

Also due out in coming days: April orders for durable goods Wednesday and the month’s personal income and spending Friday.

Keep an eye on the orders figures. While the nation’s factories are operating at less than 75 percent of capacity, there is a glut of such manufacturing mainstays as new cars and trucks. The building of jetliners has slowed to a crawl.

Economists at the Bank of America in New York note that sales jumped a solid 1.5 percent in March “as machinery, electrical equipment and transportation equipment all were up sharply.”

Unfortunately, they said April was a different story, “as hours worked fell sharply in every durable goods industry.” Accordingly, they see orders falling for the month by 1.5 percent, fully reversing the March advance.

Stock, bond, commodities, futures and options markets, along with many businesses and government offices, will be closed Monday for Memorial Day. The government’s auction of short-term Treasury debt will take place Tuesday.

Meanwhile, the stock market is facing the prospect of a summer rally. The year-ago period was hardly friendly to Wall Street, as blue chips lost about 25 percent of their value between mid-May and July 23. Stocks haven’t yet regained those lost heights.

Flossmoor, Ill., investment adviser Richard Evans says the recent rally has been impressive, and some are declaring the market to be in a new bull phase. But he added that investors “may as well take a wait-and-see approach” to see if the Dow Jones industrial average can push above 9000.

If that level, which has provided a lot of resistance, can be surpassed, Evans said, “it would confirm a new bull market for sure.”

—

(c) 2003, Chicago Tribune.

Visit the Chicago Tribune on the Internet at http://www.chicago.tribune.com/

Distributed by Knight Ridder/Tribune Information Services.

AP-NY-05-23-03 1821EDT

Copy the Story Link