Fishermen say data used by scientists to project future fish stocks is flawed.

BOSTON (AP) – As fishermen meet with policy makers at various ports this month about looming restrictions the fishermen say will ruin them, Sen. Edward Kennedy said Thursday he didn’t want to “raise false hopes” about a political or legal solution.

“I don’t want to be Polyannish or raise false expectations. I think the outcome is not enormously hopeful,” the Massachusetts Democrat said during an interview with The Associated Press. “You don’t want to sort of give up on it all, but it’s not a very hopeful situation for these fishermen.”

Kennedy said for years the question has been whether it’s possible to sustain a smaller fleet and still allow the fish to rebound, perhaps at a slower pace. But that question hasn’t been adequately answered, though new rules that could drastically cut the fleet are set to take effect next May.

“That really takes additional kinds of scientific information to know what’s down there and what’s not,” he said. “We haven’t got that to the extent that we should.”

The coming regulations, called Amendment 13, were ordered in December 2001 by a federal judge who said the government wasn’t doing enough to prevent overfishing. Fishermen argue that key groundfish stocks such as cod and flounder have rebounded after years of tighter regulation, and the science used to project fish populations is flawed.

By November, New England fishery managers must chose among four options to curtail the catch. The measures include cutting fishing days at sea by as much as 65 percent, area closures and strict quotas on protected species. Projected job losses range from 2,100 to 3,000, which some fishermen say will cripple the centuries-old industry.

Fishermen and federal regulators are meeting later this month to discuss the rules at ports including Gloucester, Portsmouth, N.H. and Portland, Maine. Kennedy said federal administrators are looking into whether the court might have some flexibility on the rules.

Kennedy said the danger is that new rules will put smaller boats out of business before the fish rebound.

“And what will happen is the fish come on back and then the big factory ships come back and suck it all out of here,” he said.

“It’s not a very happy circumstance,” he said.

Chris Zeman of the environmental group Oceana said Kennedy should urge fishermen to work with the Amendment 13 process rather than forecast doom. He said fishermen will ultimately be better off when stocks rebound, and fishermen can survive until then if the new rules force them to target healthier stocks, such as haddock, while troubled stocks rebuild.

“It’s a real shame that Massachusetts’ federally elected officials are adopting this notion that the sky is falling,” he said. “They’re hearing that from the industry, the industry can’t justify that.”

AP-ES-09-18-03 1440EDT