With a victory today, Dallas might be able to start thinking playoffs.
DALLAS – Bill Parcells talked at length this week about the significance of November, about how the Cowboys can make themselves a surprise playoff contender if this month looks anything like September or October.
We can nail it down even more specifically than that.
Win on Sunday and they’re in.
Beat these Washington Redskins while they’re down, win the most easily winnable game remaining on the 2003 schedule and the Cowboys are playoff-bound.
A 6-2 record would give Dallas some margin for error in the season’s second half. The Cowboys will need it, given the absence of Cardinals and Lions and punchless Jets on the schedule.
A 6-2 record last year wasn’t enough for San Diego or for Denver or for New Orleans, so these things aren’t automatic. But the Cowboys aren’t as likely to follow the crash course those teams traveled with one notable exception.
Denver lost its quarterback and fell out of the AFC race with backup Steve Beuerlein in the lineup. Of course, it’s even worse in the Mile High City this year, but that’s Denver’s problem.
It’s safe to say that as Quincy Carter goes, so go the Cowboys. People have been saying that around here the last two years, only with a different connotation.
Now if Carter were to get hurt, it’s difficult to picture Chad Hutchinson being dusted off and turned into a primed-for-the-playoffs quarterback.
But if Carter stays healthy enough and the Cowboys win on Sunday, we think you can go ahead and plan on the Cowboys’ first postseason participation in four years.
Here’s why:
They have Bill Parcells.
Eventually, he’s going to miss a step, do something that even the most ardent supporters see as a mistake. Right now, he can’t do anything wrong. Is some of that luck?
It has to be. But not much of it.
The Carter decision was the most important one he has rendered, and he has cashed in big on that choice. Carter ranks third in the NFC with an average gain of 7.5 yards per pass attempt.
The Cowboys have abandoned the boring West Coast dump-and-chase approach to take advantage of three fast but not particularly large wide receivers. Some view Carter’s performance in Tampa Bay as the beginning of the end, the signal that the luck or good fortune that he stumbled into the first six weeks is fading.
That’s not likely. Simply put, the Cowboys have to run the ball with some reasonable degree of efficiency to prevent the better defensive fronts from setting their hair on fire in pursuit of Carter.
That didn’t happen last week. It won’t be an issue again until they face Carolina.
What else? They have defense.
That No. 1 ranking gains in significance as the season wears on. And the Cowboys are No. 1 in the NFC by more than 40 yards.
The unit will never lead the league in sacks and turnovers, but it’s difficult to sustain drives against Dallas because of the run defense. Only two teams have rushed for a touchdown against the Cowboys all season. No team has rushed for four yards per carry against Dallas.
You can bet that the Redskins won’t.
They have discipline.
This comes from the head coach, but let’s give the players some credit for protecting the football, from avoiding the drive-killer penalties.
The Dallas offense has committed 18 penalties this season. Washington’s has committed 43. The Cowboys have turned the ball over 10 times, down from 14 at this stage a year ago.
The little things mean everything in a league of parity.
They have a road to the playoffs.
That brutal finish to the Cowboys’ schedule is looking considerably less brutal. Consider those last two road trips, to Washington and New Orleans.
A victory over the Redskins on Sunday continues Steve Spurrier’s fall from on high. The “Skins’ next three games are against Seattle, at Carolina (a possibly motivated Stephen Davis for that one) and at Miami. They could be in full retreat by the time Dallas arrives Dec. 14.
The same is true for a 3-5 Saints team that is at Tampa Bay on Sunday and has finished each of the last two seasons under Jim Haslett by losing five of its last seven.
There will be bumps in the Cowboys’ road, the inevitable crises that Parcells goes on and on about each week. But a victory Sunday puts this team one full year ahead of schedule.
And the second half of the season becomes, for the first time in years, a matter of the Cowboys hanging onto what they have and not chasing what they can’t realistically hope to attain.
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(c) 2003, The Dallas Morning News.
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AP-NY-11-01-03 0605EST
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