Gay rights have replaced abortion as the pre-eminent lifestyle issue in 21st-century America, and that could become a very big deal.

Over the past generation, Republicans have achieved electoral success primarily because of the public’s support of GOP tax cuts and defense policies.

The Democrats’ strengths are domestic issues, such as education and health care, and they remained competitive, in part, by often painting Republicans as intolerant.

Although the intolerance argument had many facets, abortion was its anchor. Democrats could make that case because their strong abortion-rights stance represented a narrow majority of voters.

But claiming that Republicans are intolerant because they oppose gay marriage risks the Democrats’ entire argument because a solid and sustained majority of Americans thinks such unions are wrong.

Moreover, the abortion issue has lost its juice. Its legality has been settled, and future disputes will be about restrictions of that right.

Because gay-rights opponents have public opinion on their side, the real unknown is whether other issues somehow obscure the impact of gay marriage.

If not, the combination of marginal Democrats crossing party lines and pumped-up turnout among social conservatives because of it could prove a major boost to the GOP.

The U.S. Supreme Court’s June decision legalizing homosexual sex and the Massachusetts decision finding gay marriage constitutionally permissible make the matter impossible for politicians to duck.

Democratic presidential candidates favor legal recognition of gay civil unions, although none of the major ones has yet backed homosexual marriage. They would make gay couples eligible for Social Security survivor benefits, private inheritance rights and next-of- kin status.

Senate GOP leader Bill Frist wants a U.S. constitutional amendment defining marriage as between a man and a woman – President Bush’s view. The amendment would supersede state laws or court decisions that bless gay marriage.

On abortion, the political debate centered on whether an amendment should overrule the courts and ban the procedure. So, too, the key gay-rights political question will be how a candidate stands on an amendment to ban homosexual marriage.

It will be exceedingly difficult for politicians to wiggle out of having a clear position on that question.

The issue does not split strictly along partisan lines, but gays are a key Democratic constituency. Candidates unsupportive of gay rights will be toast in party primaries.

Conversely, because religious conservatives abhor gay marriage and are a bedrock GOP group, most Republicans oppose the idea.

Polls show most Americans oppose discrimination against homosexuals in employment and housing, although federal law and most states, including Florida, do not make such bias illegal.

There is also a suspicion that polling data overstate the support for gay marriage, much like surveys on black candidates often show more strength than appears on Election Day.

Unknown is how this issue will influence voting decisions. Worth noting is that opposition to gay marriage is strongest among the less affluent and educated, typically Democratic voters – and weaker among those with college degrees and higher incomes, a GOP group.

Gay activists claim 10 percent of the population is homosexual, which strikes many as overstated. By any count, for gay rights to reach critical mass, it must win straight America, too.

But the voting coalition that sustained abortion rights is unlikely to replicate itself.

Suburban married women are one group that could be much less supportive of gay rights than abortion rights. The recent Vatican offensive against gay marriage may open Roman Catholic voters – historically a key swing group – to Republican appeals.

Hispanics, the most important swing voters, are socially conservative and, while not generally partial to abortion rights, may feel even less so about gay marriage.

However, the larger question is how much a candidate’s stand on the issue will influence decision-making when some voters enter the booth.

An Associated Press poll before the Massachusetts decision found 44 percent of Americans less likely to back a presidential candidate who favored civil Xunions. Only 12 percent said that would make their support more likely.

Whether Republican gains from gay marriage actually overwhelm losses because of alleged intolerance will be seen come Election Day.

But in Vegas, the smart money sees this as good news for Bush and bad for Howard Dean and all Democratic candidates.

Peter A. Brown is an editorial page columnist for the Orlando Sentinel.

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