AUBURN – Local businesspeople got a serving of optimism with their breakfast choices Thursday.

Along with the eggs, bacon, sausage, hash browns and Danish that were served to members of the Androscoggin County Chamber of Commerce at the Hilton Garden Inn was this: Maine’s economy and consumers can expect to see a good year in 2004.

That was the message from Charlie Colgan, a professor of public policy and management at the University of Southern Maine and the associate director at the Muskie School of Public Service, who was the featured speaker at the monthly Chamber breakfast.

Colgan, who used a flight analogy to illustrate Maine’s economy, said it was poised for takeoff, “but there are going to be some bumps.”

“Hopefully we’ll get over the bumps, then reach a cruising level and things will smooth out,” he said.

Among the good indicators are an increasing gross state product, a stabilization of the manufacturing sector and job growth, especially in the professional, education, health and business service sectors. Combined with other economic trends, they should amount to about a 3 to 4 percent increase in the growth of Maine’s economy in 2004.

But Colgan warns that the economy as a whole is predicated on the consumer right now. Low interest rates and the availability of cheap products have kept consumers spending, while business investment is down.

But the consumer needs to feel secure in the economy to continue spending and that means stable jobs and interest rates. But nationally, job growth is slow. Colgan said it’s possible that the country won’t see the year 2000 employment levels until 2006.

And he expects the unprecedented spending at the federal level, which has created a trade and budget deficit of $500 billion, can’t be sustained. That means rising interest rates and a slowing economy in 2005.

“We’re living beyond our means,” he said.

Here in Maine, Colgan said we need to be wary of job losses in the natural-resource based industries. The most glaring example is Great Northern Paper mill in Millinocket. Just a few years ago, the mill employed 2,000 workers, operated 11 paper machines and owned 11 percent of the land. Now it employs 350, operates one paper machine and has virtually no land base, said Colgan.

Maine is also losing out on an opportunity to capitalize on its coastal natural resources in another way – through tourism. While Maine’s coastal tourism jobs grew 19.4 percent between 1990 and 2000, nationally the growth in that sector was 37 percent.

“We’re losing market share and not keeping up with demand,” said Colgan.

But overall, Maine’s economic picture looks good for this year. The country as a whole will see a robust rate of growth in jobs and output; Maine’s gains will be steady, he said.

“Basically, the message is one of optimism,” said Colgan. “I think we’ll take off.”

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