Democrats may not like it, and more radically conservative Republicans may wince, but Arnold Schwarzenegger’s early tenure is making a powerful case for mega-celebrity governance.

By any political measure Gov. Schwarzenegger has been remarkably effective so far. He’s led a successful campaign to pass ballot measures to refinance California’s big debt. He’s reformed the disastrously costly workers compensation system. Now he’s in the midst of forging a budget deal that will honor his pledge not to raise taxes (at least for this year). He looks on track to deliver the state’s first on-time budget in memory. He’s done these things in a bipartisan way.

In short, the sense of momentum and optimism under Arnold is palpable and represents a 180-degree turn from the dreary mood of the Gray Davis era. This isn’t entirely fair to Davis, who was always more substantive and accomplished than critics or caricatures suggested. But, like life itself, politics isn’t fair. And poor gray Gray simply can’t compete with the wattage and likeability of the action-hero-turned-governor.

Arnold’s juggernaut is something that even former Davis advisers privately admit they’re watching with appreciation and awe. Meanwhile, recall foes like myself have to concede it represents progress for the state.

Perhaps most interestingly, Schwarzenegger is resurrecting the old style of effective backroom governance – where the top guy can get in a room with five top legislators, cut the deal (on, say, workers compensation), and then have the legislators deliver their colleagues on a vote shortly thereafter. This is only possible because of Arnold’s star power and the credible threat it gives him to go to “the people” if the legislators balk.

The evolving budget represents another innovative use of Arnold’s celebrity power. Here, the governor initially bypassed the legislature entirely and cut deals directly with major interest groups (like college presidents and the teachers union) on near-term cuts they’d accept if he pledged certain support in future years. Then he presented the package to the legislature as a fait accompli. To be sure, many legislators are fuming, and fights will ensue, but because of the power his mega-celebrity confers, Schwarzenegger will almost certainly carry the day.

One remarkable measure of the age of Arnold is the fact that the Democratic legislature is reopening overly generous union contracts with public employees that were signed just two years ago under Gray Davis!

When something stunning yet sensible like this can happen, it’s hard not to think Sacramento is under the sway of a newfangled LBJ with an accent and a tan.

So much for the fawning. There remain questions, especially on the budget. Is Arnold using his power to really solve the state’s long-term fiscal problems – or is he instead putting off hard choices that his outsized stature arguably enables him to tackle?

When Republicans Ronald Reagan and Pete Wilson took the helm during previous Golden State fiscal crises, for example, they enacted tax hikes early that restored budget sanity. By contrast, Arnold is borrowing big-time. He’s hiking college tuitions for low-income students rather than taxes on top earners.

Others worry that the long-term funding hikes Arnold has promised to win support for near-term cuts could build in a new spending wave bound to bust the budget down the road. Schwarzenegger has barely begun to explore promising ways to boost government agency performance and productivity. The state’s millions of uninsured citizens don’t feature in his speeches.

Arnold optimists suspect their man has a plan. He’ll create momentum and public excitement in year one while keeping his “no tax” pledge. Then he’ll use that political capital to step up creatively to such problems in the years ahead.

But no one really knows. And Arnold himself isn’t telling. As he’s taken to saying, he views all this as being like a really good James Cameron script with a happy ending that he isn’t about to reveal yet . . .

Matthew Miller is a syndicated columnist and author. Reach him on the Web at www.mattmilleronline.com.