DALLAS – Trying to figure out the NHL’s labor situation is a little like trying to break down one of Scotty Bowman’s game plans – very, very complicated.

While the league and its players need to sign a new collective bargaining agreement before the season can begin, there is some debate as to how interested either side is in avoiding a lockout.

The players obviously don’t want to miss paychecks but say they have to protect a “free-market system.” The owners, meanwhile, only put forward plans that involve “cost certainty”- a phrase the players say equates to a salary cap.

“It does appear from everything we’ve seen the last couple of years that (commissioner) Gary Bettman’s intention is to trigger a lockout to try to put economic pressure on the players to agree to a deal they wouldn’t negotiate on the basis of trying to sit down and trying to negotiate a fair compromise,” Ted Saskin, the NHL Players Association senior director, said in early August.

So is this about negotiation or about getting your way? And if it’s not about negotiation, is the NHL prepared to deal with the fallout of a long lockout? Finally, if you’re a fan, should you be prepared to live without hockey for a while? The easy answer is there are no easy answers.

For his part, Bettman believes he has been honest and forthcoming on the key issue. Using figures from an NHL-funded audit, Bettman said the league produces about $2 billion in revenue and the players take $1.49 billion of that in “player costs,” with an average team payroll of $44 million.

“What we have said is: Let’s talk about a value proposition: How much of the $2 billion, as a group, are the players entitled to?’ ” Bettman said. “And if you do our economics, that would result in an average team payroll of $31 million.”

The problem, players say, is that it would also ensure that any other tweaks in the system (free agency, arbitration, guaranteed contracts) are rendered pretty much useless. If teams can only spend so much, then what good is free agency and how many arbitration awards will teams vacate?

“We believe that every team has a salary cap,” NHLPA executive director Bob Goodenow said. “It’s called a budget.”

Goodenow allowed generous givebacks in free agency (unrestricted free agency begins at 31), rookie contracts (capped at $1.25 million but allows for bonuses) and arbitration (arbitrator picks any number he wants) when the league negotiated its last collective bargaining agreement in 1995. By focusing on those “salary drags” and avoiding a cap or luxury tax, Goodenow allowed owners a system in which they could outbid each other for the top talent. The result: Players’ salaries have gone from an average of $572,000 to $1.79 million in 10 years. Ironically, Bettman and the league also contributed to the environment that pushed salaries through the roof. The league has added nine teams since 1991, creating a greater demand for key players and a small surplus of spending cash in the form of expansion fees.

The Stars were front and center among teams that handed out ridiculous offers, signing Pat Verbeek to a deal that averaged $3.1 million a season and following with contracts for Ed Belfour ($3.3 million) and Brett Hull ($5 million). While those moves helped win a Stanley Cup, they also established a trend that allowed Mike Modano’s salary to grow from $3 million to $9 million in seven years.

“Look, I think it’s pretty clear that the players won; they got what they wanted,” Stars president Jim Lites said. “But because they had such a clear victory, our sport is now in danger and we have to fix it. A

“And, really, this (CBA) is the one chance – the only chance -we have to fix it.”