PORTLAND – For the first time in this campaign, a poll released Tuesday showed the tax-cap referendum behind.

Of those polled, 37.8 percent said they would vote yes or were leaning yes; 43.8 percent said they would vote no or were leaning no; another 18.5 percent were undecided. The Strategic Marketing Services poll has a 4.9 percent margin of error.

The reason for the change, experts agree, is the anti-tax-cap side has television ads running, the yes side does not. “It’s still wide open, but this does indicate a big movement against it,” said Patrick Murphy of SMS. “Obviously, advertising is playing a role here.”

In other races, the poll showed Democrat Mike Michaud with a comfortable lead in his re-election bid as the 2nd District U.S. representative. Of those polled, 51.2 percent favored Michaud; 20.8 percent supported Republican challenger Brian Hamel; another 27.9 were undecided. “Michaud is known and appears to be a likable candidate; his opponent is not known, and I haven’t seen any ads on TV,” Murphy said.

And the referendum to ban bear-baiting is also behind, the poll shows, 33.3 percent to 49.6 percent, but with 17.3 percent undecided.

Previous polls have shown the tax cap ahead ever since Carol Palesky succeeded last winter in getting the referendum on the ballot. A Sept. 24 poll showed 47 percent favored the cap, 43 percent opposed, and 10 percent were unsure. But compared to earlier polls, support had shrunk.

Tuesday’s poll was based on telephone interviews of 400 registered voters from Sept. 23 to Sept. 27, days after Citizens United to Protect Public Safety, Schools and Communities began an ad featuring Lewiston Fire Chief Mike Lajoie. He warned the cap would result in firefighters and police officers losing their jobs, and that response time to emergencies would increase.

Meanwhile, there have been no television ads from the Tax Cap YES! “What moves people is the electronic media, particularly television advertising,” Murphy said. With Election Day less than a month away, if voters continue to see ads from only one side, it would be tough for the yes side to win, Murphy said. “But a huge amount depends on the undecided.”

Dennis Bailey of Citizens United to Protect Public Safety, Schools and Communities said Tuesday’s poll numbers were encouraging. “Support seems to be coming down,” because of “heavy press from towns and communities in their analysis” of the cap, plus, “We’re on TV, and they’re not,” Bailey said.

He added he wasn’t taking a win for granted. “This could change quickly if they come out with an ad buy,” Bailey said.

Phil Harriman of Tax Cap YES! said Tuesday he hopes his campaign’s television ads will begin soon. He did not offer when.

Reacting to the poll, Harriman said towns and schools have scared people by telling them, “If this thing passes … we’ll fire the very people we need the most: firemen, police and teachers.” The ads “have clearly had an effect over the last month,” he said.

Even with what he called scare tactics and a one-sided story on television ads, Harriman pointed out that more than 50 percent of those polled are so frustrated with high property taxes, they’re either voting for the tax cap or are undecided.

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