Republicans are hoping to recapture the Maine Senate this year, breaking the Democrats’ stranglehold on political power in Augusta.

Democrats currently control both houses of the Legislature and occupy the governor’s office.

But Democrats’ grip on the Senate, where they hold only an 18-17 edge, is tenuous. With many lawmakers stepping down, the election could go either way.

Only two Senate Republicans are barred from running this year because of term limits, compared to five Democrats. But, five additional Republican senators have decided not to seek re-election, creating even greater uncertainty about the leadership of the Senate for the next legislative session.

Two years ago, the Senate was deadlocked, with the two parties holding 17 seats apiece and a lone independent often casting the tie-breaking vote. Party leaders took turns presiding over the chamber.

That situation in the Senate changed in 2002, when Democrats picked up the odd seat after Christopher Hall of Bristol prevailed in a contentious, controversial recount.

That rankled many Republicans and left them itching for Election Day revenge.

“We have a good shot at it,” Maine Republican Party Executive Director Dwayne Bickford said Friday.

Several former GOP state representatives have thrown their hats into the ring for open Senate seats, Bickford said.

Democrats, whose Senate incumbents are all seeking re-election, are confident they will keep the reins out of Republican hands.

“We’re very hopeful,” said Sen. Peggy Rotundo, D-Lewiston. “We’ve got a great slate of candidates.”

A Democratic majority in the Senate would mean Gov. John Baldacci will be seeking consensus on balancing the state budget and on his plans for sweeping tax reform, said his spokesman, Lee Umphrey. Baldacci also is expected to press the Legislature to pass gay rights legislation that would make it illegal to discriminate on the basis of sexual orientation for work, housing and credit.

In the final days before Nov. 2, Baldacci was busy campaigning for Democratic candidates in an effort to, at a minimum, maintain the status quo, Umphrey said.

“He’s confident it will basically stay the same in the House,” Umphrey said. “It’s going to be close in the Senate, but he believes the Senate will retain a Democratic majority.”

Although many had predicted a Republican upset earlier in the campaign, Umphrey said that party’s rejection of a $40 million bond package this year has turned off voters.

Bickford believes otherwise.

“Voters are frustrated that the Democrats did not address tax reform” as evidenced by support for a statewide tax cap and a referendum that passed in June requiring the state to pay 55 percent of costs for public education in kindergarten through grade 12 and all special education.

“Voters are going to look to Republicans as the vehicle for change,” Bickford said.

If a Republican majority took over leadership of the Senate, Umphrey said Baldacci would make the best of it.

“It’s the governor’s hope that people would play well together,” he said.

That optimism was not borne out in the final weeks of the last session, when the two parties failed to agree on the size of a bond package.

On the House side, most political observers predict the current balance of power will not shift dramatically. Democrats hold 82 seats, Republicans hold 65 and independents have two. One seat is vacant and one is held by a Green Party member.

Nine Republican House members were forced out by term limits, and several more have left to run for Senate or for non-political reasons. By contrast, 13 Democrats cannot seek re-election due to term limits. Eight more Democrats have decided not to seek another term in the House, some eyeing a Senate seat.

A total of House 103 incumbents will be on the ballot: 58 Democrats and 45 Republicans. That leaves 48 open seats.

A couple of House and Senate seats are toss-ups because of reapportionment. That shifted the boundaries and moved some lawmakers, at least in part, out of areas they had represented. In one case, John Eder, the sole Green Party House member, had to move into a new apartment to get back into the same district as his constituents, before running for re-election.

Both Republicans and Democrats have been registering new voters in higher numbers than any time in recent history, the state parties said.

And both said they expect their legislative candidates to ride the coattails of their respective presidential nominees. At least in the 2nd Congressional District, it’s still anybody’s guess which candidate that will be.

Current balance of power in the Maine Legislature

Senate

Democrat, 18

Republican, 17

House

Democrat, 82

Republican, 65

Independent, 2

Green, 1

vacant, 1

Senate seats open, 12

House Seats open, 48

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