A significantly more conservative Congress will surround George Bush when he starts his second term in January.

This year’s elections increased the strength of the Republicans as they picked up four seats in both the Senate and the House. They will have a 32-vote majority in the House and an effective 10-vote majority in the Senate (there is one independent who caucuses with the Democrats). The Senate difference is more important because the chamber has only 100 members.

This enlarged majority will influence how Maine’s two Senators act in the upcoming congressional session.

A logical question follows: Can they be effective legislative operators and still vote their constituents’ wishes?

I ask this question because, to put it bluntly, our senators are out-of-step with the national Republican Party. Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe are moderates. Even worse (to conservatives), they are liberal on many key issues. For example:

Abortion

Last year they both voted against a bill that would have banned so-called “partial-birth abortions.” One Republican (Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island) and 31 Democrats joined them in opposition. Nevertheless, the bill passed overwhelmingly.

Natural resources

In 2003, they both voted for a bill that would have kept the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge free from oil drilling. They were a little less lonely on this issue: Five other Republican senators joined them. The bill passed, but only by four votes.

Global warming

Snowe and Collins bucked their own party last year when they supported legislation that would have established a program to accelerate the reduction of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions. Only four other Republicans voted with them. The legislation failed, 55-43.

Philosophically, they have very few allies within their own party.

I offer as proof the American Conservative Union’s annual ranking of Congress based upon voting records. Last year it ranked senators on 19 key votes and House members on 24 key votes. A 100 score is very conservative and a zero score is very liberal.

In 2003, 47 of the 51 current Republican senators scored 70 and above.

Collins had a 45 while Snowe had a 35.

Snowe’s score tied her with Lincoln Chafee, earning them the distinction as being the two most liberal Senate Republicans. The five new senator-elects are all either current or former congressmen. The lowest score for any of them is Richard Burr of North Carolina, with an 84.

The 2004 presidential vote in Maine reflects our moderate to liberal ideology. While Bush won the national vote with 51 percent to Kerry’s 48 percent, Maine went for Kerry, 53 to 45 percent. A CNN exit poll revealed that 73 percent of Maine presidential voters identified themselves as either moderate or liberal, while only 67 percent did so nationally. Moreover, Iraq was the most important issue to Maine presidential voters. Nationally, moral values were the most important issue to presidential voters.

As members of a politically endangered species, how will they survive? I believe they have two main options:

Option one: Continue to vote moderately, reflecting the wishes of the majority of their constituents. If they make this choice, they risk becoming marginalized. With a 10-vote majority, the Republican leadership may not have to compromise or bargain for Snowe or Collins’ vote anymore. On many key issues, there will be enough Republican senators (aided by a few conservative Democrats) to pass legislation without their votes. This directly weakens their political leverage. With nothing to trade, they will be in a weaker negotiating position when they fight for issues which significantly affect Mainers, such as possible future military base closures.

Option two: Slowly, but surely, begin to act more conservative. By conservative, I mean support President Bush’s agenda. How might this occur? They could refrain from asking any questions to judicial nominees that might anger social conservatives. For example, they could sidestep the whole abortion issue. They could also drop their public efforts to press the administration to take action to slow global warming. On drilling for oil in Alaska? Hey, maybe it could be done safely.

Some believe that Snowe and Collins will still have influence because of the filibuster rule. Since a filibuster can only be overcome with 60 votes, they might be able to persuade Democrats to forsake using the filibuster tactic, in exchange for compromise on key issues. If they succeed, the specific compromises engineered by one (or both) of the Maine moderates will be scrutinized. Will the compromises accurately reflect the centrist views of the Maine electorate, or will they be a series of cleverly concealed cave-ins to the conservatives?

Only time will tell.

Karl Trautman is the chairperson of the Department of Social Sciences at Central Maine Community College.

Copy the Story Link