The situation is Iraq is intractable. Going forward with scheduled elections on Jan. 30 is a terrible idea. Unfortunately, postponing the vote is even worse.

About half the population of Iraq lives in areas that are not safe enough to allow for a reasonable election. Every major Sunni party, or about 20 percent of the population, is boycotting. Fear drives many candidates, just two weeks from balloting, to remain anonymous. And the country is on the verge of a civil war, with political assassinations the norm. Police, rival factions and clerics who support the election are all targeted.

With so much of the country a no-go zone, any governing body elected will face difficulty establishing legitimacy. Already, the interim government is considered nothing more than an extension of the United States.

But what is the alternative?

The insurgents who are battling to derail the elections will not be co-opted by a delay. They are ruthless and committed former Baathists, their Sunni supporters and jihadist allies who want to maintain minority control and majority oppression throughout Iraq, just as they had under Saddam Hussein. They know their goals cannot be accomplished through the ballot box. Even though the insurgents number in the thousands, they don’t have the numbers to prevail in the elections.

While the ultimate decision about going forward with elections should be left to the interim government, President Bush is correct to push for the Jan. 30 date. Elections are a necessary step for the situation in Iraq to move forward.

Expectations, however, should remain realistic. Just as the capture of Saddam did not end the insurgency, neither will elections. Violence will continue – and likely escalate – as Jan. 30 nears. On Feb. 1, Iraq’s government will be no more stable, the country will be no more secure and the necessity of U.S. forces will continue.

Elections are a difficult step, filled with potential pitfalls, but holding them moves the United States a little closer to what should be the ultimate objective: Bringing our soldiers home.