By ROBERT BURNS

AP Military Writer

WASHINGTON (AP) – The deadly crash of a British military cargo plane in Iraq on Jan. 30 most likely was caused by hostile fire rather than by mechanical failure, a senior U.S. general said Wednesday.

Air Force Lt. Gen. Lance Smith, deputy commander of U.S. Central Command, told reporters at the Pentagon that it seemed improbable that a shoulder-fired missile could have brought down the plane. A more likely explanation, he said, would be small arms fire or rocket-propelled grenades.

Smith, a veteran combat pilot, stressed that he was expressing his personal opinion.

The British government, which is investigating the crash, has not said what may have caused it. Smith is the first U.S. official to speculate publicly on the possibility of a hostile attack.

All 10 people aboard the plane were killed in the crash, which happened north of Baghdad. It was the deadliest single event for British forces since the Iraq war began in March 2003.

“I personally believe there may have been either hostile action or something that happened inside the aircraft, but I doubt that it was mechanical in nature, if you know what I mean,” Smith said.

Smith is not a participant in the British investigation.

Touching on other issues in the Iraq war, Smith said:

-U.S. officials will negotiate with the Iraqis on transferring to them the responsibility of providing personal security for leaders of the interim Iraqi government. “There’s a reluctance (among the Iraqis) to let us walk away from that,” he said.

-The approximately 10,000 U.S. troops whose tours of duty in Iraq were extended beyond the normal 12 months in order to assist with pre-election security probably will go home this spring. Smith said there are now between 153,300 and 153,800 U.S. troops in Iraq – the highest number of the war.

-Insurgent attacks have dropped to 30 or 40 per day since last month’s vote. That is approximately the level seen before the pre-election surge in violence. On election day, there were nearly 300 attacks. Most of the attacks now are focused on Iraqis rather than on U.S. troops.

Smith cited several reasons for doubting that the crash of the British C-130 plane was an accident. He cited the high qualifications of the aircraft’s crew and unconfirmed reports from people who may have witnessed the event.

Smith said there have been witness reports that ground fire was seen in the area at the time of the crash, and this is being investigated by the British government.

He expressed doubt that a shoulder-fired missile brought down the C-130, but he left open the possibility that it could have been a radar-guided surface-to-air missile or small arms fire.

“I don’t believe that airplane went down from a missile,” he said, noting later that he was referring specifically to what the military calls a man-portable air defense weapon, or Manpad.

The warhead of an SA-7 shoulder-fired missile is so small that even if its aim were true, it would have disabled only one of the C-130’s four engines, Smith said, and thus “it should have been able to land.”

“There are other likely scenarios, whether it’s small arms fire that hit something in the rear, or a lucky shot from an RPG (rocket-propelled grenade),” he said. “There are just so many scenarios, the one that seems least likely to me – because it would have been seen – is the Manpad one.”

Smith said he doubts the authenticity of a videotape that purports to show insurgents launching some type of projectile, along with images of flaming wreckage. The group, “Green Brigade,” claimed it have shot down the C-130; the video was aired by Al-Jazeera television on Jan. 31.

“I’m pretty confident that the tapes they showed on Al-Jazeera were bogus,” he said.

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