AKRON, Ohio – Much of the angst in this year’s NFL Draft has come at the top.
That’s where the San Francisco 49ers have spent the past weeks deciding between two quarterbacks – Aaron Rodgers of Cal and Alex Smith of Utah.
Why does this happen when many draft analysts think the two best players are receivers – Braylon Edwards and Mike Williams?
Because in the NFL, teams find quarterbacks in the draft. And when teams draft high and the need is merely minimal, they almost always consider a quarterback.
Yes, the Patriots have won three Super Bowls with a sixth-round pick at quarterback (Tom Brady), but New England is the exception. Most teams find their quarterbacks in the high rounds of the draft.
A study of the projected starters for next season is revealing.
In the AFC, 13 of the 16 quarterbacks were first- or second-round picks. Ten were drafted by the team they will lead. And the three who weren’t all were previous high picks – Cleveland’s Trent Dilfer was the sixth overall pick in 1994 (by Tampa Bay), Denver’s Jake Plummer was a second-round pick (by Arizona) and Oakland’s Kerry Collins was the fifth overall pick (by Carolina) in 1995.
A quarterback with talent (like Dilfer and Collins) just does not go away. Look at Drew Bledsoe, who went from being the first overall pick in New England to Buffalo and now to Dallas.
In the NFC, eight projected starters were first- or second-round picks.
That means a little less than two-thirds of the starting quarterbacks in the league were high picks. Thirteen of the league’s starters were taken in the top 10. Seventeen came in the top 20.
Six starters were the first overall pick – Cincinnati’s Carson Palmer, Indianapolis’ Peyton Manning, Houston’s David Carr, Atlanta’s Mike Vick, Bledsoe and the Giants’ Eli Manning.
Quite simply, it’s a league in which teams look to fill a key position with a high draft pick.
“The thing that’s good about the quarterback position – as everybody knows – is if there is a guy worthy of that pick, because of the position, you don’t get that chance (often),” 49ers coach Mike Nolan said. “I’d like to think we’ll never pick here again and because of that if the opportunity is there to get the right guy, I think you have to do it.”
“Football is a team game,” said new Dolphins coach Nick Saban. “But I think quarterback is a critical position.”
It’s logic; there’s no other skill position on the team that touches the ball on every single play.
“We looked at all these stats that they’ve given to us from this new computer in the NFL,” Saban said. “The teams that make the most explosive plays go to the playoffs. There’s all these stats about winning and losing. The team who is plus-two in turnovers has an 84 percent chance of winning the game. But if you look at all those things, a lot of them have to evolve a little from that position.
“That guy handles the ball every time, he makes a decision on every play. So it’s a critical position in terms of not just stability but knowledge, experience, judgment, making good decisions and that type of thing.”
In 1999, Minnesota was coming off consecutive playoff seasons, yet the Vikings still took Daunte Culpepper.
“We were trying to get to where we would have a quarterback for the ages,” said Dennis Green, coach of those Vikings.
Last year the Bills had Bledsoe on the roster, yet they traded to get J.P. Losman.
“We knew we needed a young quarterback and we felt we had to get someone last year,” coach Mike Mularkey said.
Tampa Bay has re-signed Brian Griese and drafted Chris Simms in 2003, but the Bucs are pondering a quarterback with this year’s fifth pick.
“If you love the quarterback, you’ve got to take the guy,” Tampa Bay coach Jon Gruden said.
For that reason, the Browns have thought long and hard about taking a quarterback with the third pick. They seem to favor Alex Smith of Utah. One has to ask: If you have to take a quarterback when you have the chance, is this the Browns’ chance?
“We look at that over the years,” new general manager Phil Savage said. “For every Peyton Manning there was a Ryan Leaf, for every Donovan McNabb there was a Tim Couch and Akili Smith. The air is thin up there and sometimes we don’t get enough oxygen.”
Maybe, but a subjective study of quarterbacks drafted in the first round since 1999 shows more hits than misses.
Eighteen were taken in those six drafts; six of them (guys like Eli Manning and Buffalo’s Losman) are too early in their career to make a judgment. Of the 12 left, eight have succeeded. That means two-thirds of the picks were justified.
Those who didn’t – Couch, Smith and Cade McNown – are the exception.
Couch really stands out as the exception among the last 10 quarterbacks taken with the first overall pick.
Eli Manning, Palmer and Carr appear headed to solid careers. Vick is one of the league’s best players. Peyton Manning is a superstar. Bledsoe might be on the downside, but he’s 192 yards shy of 40,000. Troy Aikman is Hall of Fame-bound, Vinny Testaverde has been solid and Jeff George …well …maybe George and Couch tie for biggest bust.
But the ones taken first who made it or are on track to make it certainly outnumber the ones who didn’t. Savage seems to understand why a young quarterback might struggle, too.
“If the Browns were to take a quarterback, then the organization and the coaching staff, the personnel staff and the people within this building have to get behind the kid 1,000 percent,” Savage said. “What happens is these guys are taken and the following weekend they walk out there for that first minicamp. As soon as the ball wobbles or as soon as it hits the ground or as soon as the kid goes left and he should have gone right, there’s somebody within this building whispering.
“All of a sudden it cascades and it ruins the guy’s career. Then he has to emerge somewhere else if he’s ever going to become a player. If we take a quarterback, regardless whether it’s at 3, 34, 67, wherever it is, including the guys who are here now, we’re behind them 1,000 percent.”
He pointed out that the Eagles have supported McNabb, the Falcons have built their team around Vick and the Ravens have Boller.
“I drank the Kool-Aid,” Savage said. “I’m going to say Kyle Boller can play quarterback in this league until he proves otherwise.
“That’s the way you have to approach that quarterback position. You cannot allow the guy to fail. You have to do everything in your power as an organization to make sure that happens.”
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(c) 2005, Akron Beacon Journal (Akron, Ohio).
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AP-NY-04-21-05 2234EDT
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