WASHINGTON – The economic effects of closing U.S. military bases can hit nearby cities and towns like a tsunami, the chairman of a base-closing and realignment commission said Tuesday as the commission began a four-month review to determine the future of scores of bases.
The nine-member commission’s heavy lifting starts within the next 12 days after the Pentagon submits its recommendations for closing or restructuring bases that it’s decided no longer meet the nation’s long-term military needs. The deadline for the Pentagon report is May 16, but it could be released by early next week.
“The words “closure’ and “realignment’ are easy to write on paper, but they have profound effects on communities,” said Anthony J. Principi, the commission’s chairman.
Communities nationwide have been lobbying feverishly to protect their bases and will accelerate their campaigns as the commission conducts hearings and visits bases. Texas, California, Florida, Georgia and North and South Dakota are among those with aggressive save-our-base campaigns.
Principi, a former Veteran Affairs secretary, said the panel faces “daunting challenges,” but he promised “independent, fair and equitable” deliberations. The commission must prepare its report for President Bush by Sept. 8. The president then will review it and can order revisions. Finally, Congress must accept or reject the report in its entirety.
The commission’s fundamental assignment is to review the Pentagon base-closing list. Principi said the review will be an “unbiased assessment” and “a clear-eyed reality check.” The nine commissioners can remove bases from the list by a simple five-vote majority or add bases with a seven-vote super majority.
Previous base-closing commissions have accepted 85 percent of the Pentagon’s recommendations.
The 2005 effort is the latest of five base-closing rounds that have shuttered 97 major bases and hundreds of smaller installations since 1988 for a net savings of nearly $28 billion. Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld, in pressing for further reductions, wants to cut or realign as many as 25 percent of the estimated 450 remaining bases.
Political leaders in virtually every state have organized extensive base-protection efforts, touting the merits of potentially endangered installations to Congress and the Pentagon. Eighteen major bases are in Texas, including Fort Worth’s joint reserve base and Fort Hood in Killeen, one of the largest military installations in the world.
Rumsfeld has acknowledged that the planned return of more than 70,000 U.S. troops from overseas bases in Asia and Europe could spare some domestic bases from closure. An overseas basing commission has been conducting a yearlong study of U.S. troop needs abroad and will present its recommendations on Monday.
Although most communities fear the potential economic loss from the base closings, Barry Holman, an official for the Government Accountability Office, told commission members that most communities that lost bases in previous rounds are recovering. Nearly 85 percent of civilian jobs on shuttered bases have since been replaced through redevelopment of the properties, he said.
A threat by Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich to resist the closure of National Guard bases in his state could complicate the commission’s work. Blagojevich maintains that a state Guard unit cannot be moved or shut down without a governor’s permission. Principi said the issue may have to be decided in court.
A senior intelligence analyst, briefing the commission on potential national security risks over the next 20 years, said the United States faces a growing threat from terrorist networks and hostile regimes.
“Some two dozen countries” either possess or hope to acquire weapons of mass destruction and missiles, said David Gordon, chairman of the National Intelligence Council, an advisory group to the CIA director. Terrorists also “are drawn to these weapons,” he said.
Gordon said that al-Qaida will be “superseded over time by similarly inspired Islamic extremist groups” that may be spawned by local separatist movements.
“This problem,” he said, “is going to be with us for a long time to come.”
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