By David Sharp,Associated Press Writer

PORTLAND – A sea of red tide is causing problems for clam diggers, but Maine’s lobstermen are guardedly optimistic about the upcoming season.

Despite the cold winter and miserable spring, lobstermen have been surprised to see signs of an earlier start than last year, and there seems to be a healthy number of juvenile lobsters growing to maturity on the ocean floor.

Arnie Gamage of South Bristol says it’s hard to figure out. The cold spring seemed to cause a late start for everything – except lobsters.

“The movement of lobster has been on time or a little early,” said Gamage, who has been fishing for 40 years. “Why? I have no idea.”

A late start last year and in 2003 had some lobstermen worrying about whether the boom years were coming to an end. Instead, they ended up fishing into November and December and finishing with a record haul, according to the Maine Department of Marine Resources.

Pat White of the Maine Lobstermen’s Association said no one knows why they were late or why signs point toward an earlier start this year. Sometimes, it doesn’t pay to try to figure out the habits of Maine’s most valuable sea creature.

“We can’t figure out how to outsmart an animal with no brain,” said White, a lobsterman based in York Harbor.

Lobster is not affected by red tide, the toxic algae bloom that has hurt the clam and mussel industry from Maine to Massachusetts.

Maine’s and Massachusetts’ governors have declared an economic emergency for their respective shellfish industries, making clam diggers and others eligible for low-interest loans from the Small Business Administration.

It’s unclear whether wariness about shellfish and higher shellfish prices will have any impact on the lobster industry.

For now, the boat price for lobster is about $5.50 per pound, and reports of an earlier start than last year have raised optimism.

“Guys are kind of upbeat. Anything would be better than last year,” when the heaviest lobster catch didn’t begin until August, White said.

When the lobsters begin moving in traps in big numbers is anyone’s guess. Many lobstermen set their traps in the spring but it’s usually not until later in the summer that they begin attracting large numbers of lobsters.

The prevailing wisdom is that cold water keeps lobsters in deeper water in the spring and limits their movement.

Carl Wilson, a state lobster biologist, said lobsters’ metabolism slows to the point where they hardly move in cold water. “You can stick a baited trap in front of them and they won’t go into it,” Wilson said.

A temperature change of just 1 or 2 degrees can make all the difference during the spring lobster fishery, Wilson said.

As the water warms, lobsters begin moving about on the ocean floor, crawling closer to shore and wandering into traps in search of a meal. “If they’re hungry, they’ll move,” said Nathan Jones. “If they’re not hungry, they won’t move.”

Jones, based in Stonington, said he’s guardedly optimistic because he’s finding so many juvenile lobster in a wide size range in his traps. That indicates there is a healthy stock of lobsters not only for this summer but for future seasons.

Other factors that could affect lobstermen this summer are high prices for fuel and bait. As it stands, there’s limited availability of the preferred bait, herring, and high fuel prices affect herring boats, lobstermen and delivery trucks.

Bait is almost double last year’s cost, and fuel has gone from $1.25 a gallon last year to the current level of about $2.10, said Dave Cousens, who fishes from South Thomaston.

Lobstermen have no complaints about the current $5.50 boat price. But there’s a limit to what consumers are willing to pay, so those added costs of doing business will reduce profit margins, said Cousens, who recently resorted to buying 50-pound frozen blocks of mackerel and herring from Cape May, N.J.

Of course, there were similar worries last year before lobstermen began hauling in lobsters in record numbers. Last year’s catch represented a record for both value – $267.6 million – and for weight – 66.5 million pounds, according to preliminary DMR data. Those numbers could increase before the final tally is completed.

Cousens, for one, is hedging his bets.

“You can’t predict lobsters. When you think you know what’s going on, you realize you don’t,” he said. “We’ve been doing this long enough to know that when we think we’ve got it right, they screw us up.”

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