In a little more than a month, a hopeful promoter and a desperate committee of volunteers will try to gather 5,000 people in Mexico for a fund-raising concert.

If the plan works, the Moontide Water Festival will free itself from debt and secure the future of the July 4th celebration.

If the plan fails, it could be disastrous for the festival, which is held in Rumford.

As much as we would like to be boosters for the rock concert – and we do hope it succeeds – the signs so far are ominous. The Moontide Water Festival Committee is struggling with $22,000 in debt. It owes the town of Rumford $7,000 and Telstar Displays $15,000 for this year’s fireworks.

The debt follows a difficult time for the festival. About $5,000 disappeared from the committee’s account, and the former president, Matthew J. Plante of Rumford, was indicted on theft charges in February. He pleaded not guilty in March and awaits trial this fall.

Jim Viger, who was born in Rumford in 1956, is staging a concert to rescue the festival. Viger is a former member of the band Night Ranger and has recruited his old mates for the show. Several local bands are on the card along with a former member of Grammy-winner Santana’s original band and a founding member of the rock group Journey.

Tickets for the Aug. 21 outdoor concert will be $22.50, and Viger hopes to attract between 4,000 and 5,000 people to Mexico Recreation Park. Viger estimates expenses for the show at between $35,000 and $40,000. If successful, the concert could gross more than $90,000 he says.

We just can’t look at the circumstances and be optimistic. Concert organizers have had trouble finding a company to sell tickets. So far, there has been no significant marketing effort. The ticket price seems high. And the all-day event is scheduled to go head-to-head with the Great Falls Balloon Festival in Lewiston-Auburn, now in its 13th year. Even with poor weather last year on Saturday, the free, three-day festival drew thousands of people to the Twin Cities. And, as every outdoor event organizer knows, Maine’s unpredictable weather can kill turnout. That’s a lot to overcome for the concert.

And there’s so much riding on it.

Current Moontide Committee President Joseph Roberts has pledged to pay the town back the money owed if the money can’t be raised through other means by September. And the expenses of the show will be there even if the crowds aren’t. It’s not clear who would be responsible if the concert flops. But it should be clear that neither the Moontide Committee nor the town of Rumford can afford a failure.

Crowds at this year’s Moontide Water Festival were disappointing, and it only raised about $4,500.

We don’t doubt the commitment of the Moontide Committee members or of Viger, who’s trying to put his skills to work for his hometown. But their efforts aside, selling more than $100,000 worth of tickets for a first-time, summer event is risky business.

The Mexico Board of Selectmen has asked the town manager to meet with concert organizers before its next meeting on July 27 and have asked Viger and Roberts to attend. The selectmen will do their community and the Moontide Festival a great service if they ask tough questions and explore the worst-case scenario.

Time is short to pull off such a big event. Better that possible disappointment be discussed now, than for surprises next month.