By Bonnie Washuk,Staff Writer

AUGUSTA – For an off-year election, voter turnout Tuesday will be strong, maybe as high as 50 percent, Secretary of State Matthew Dunlap predicted Friday.

While most off-year races attract only between 22 to 50 percent of voters, Tuesday’s may be at the high end because of the gay rights issue. Question 1 is one of broad social interest with intensity around it, Dunlap said.

“If people stay focused, if it’s a good day, turnout will be strong. The weather plays a role,” Dunlap said. “The radio is alive” with advertising and talk radio discussing Question 1, he said. “That gets people motivated to vote.”

Tuesday’s turnout probably won’t break records, but could be higher than normal for an off-year vote, said Mark Brewer, an assistant professor of political science at the University of Maine.

That’s despite the lack of advertising that typically surfaces.

The “Yes on 1” side hasn’t had the money to have statewide television advertising. It does have radio ads and regional cable ads, said Paul Madore, who heads a Christian conservative group fighting gay rights.

Maine Won’t Discriminate’s Ted O’Meara said his “No on 1” campaign has been on statewide television for two weeks. As of Friday his campaign raised nearly $1 million, a decent amount for a Maine campaign.

Without abundant television ads, “The campaigns have certainly generated attention,” Brewer said. “You can’t open any of the bigger newspapers in Maine or listen to the local news without” seeing or reading about Question 1.

During presidential elections, Maine’s voter turnout is among the best in the country. Last year, 73.5 percent of registered voters cast ballots, the second-highest state participation in the country. Turnout is much lower in years like this one, when there are no major political races, experts said.

It’s not clear how effective the Question 1 campaigns have been, Brewer said. The anti-gay-rights side did not reach people who are not members of their groups, he said, adding that Their campaign was a grass-roots mobilization effort.

The pro-gay-rights side started off poorly, Brewer said. Its first television advertisement was lackluster. Its second, featuring the father of a homosexual man who experienced discrimination, was effective, Brewer said. “That’s a step in the right direction.”

The “No on 1” campaign has the harder job because it has to increase turnout in an off year, Brewer said.

But Bowdoin College professor Christian Potholm believes the “no” side has an advantage because of the confusing question: “Do you want to reject the new law that would protect people from discrimination in employment, housing, education, public accommodations and credit based on their sexual orientation?”

A “yes” vote means no to gay rights; a “no” means yes to gay rights.

In any campaign, whichever side has the “no” on its side gets an automatic five points, Potholm said. “When voters are in doubt, they vote no.” The higher the turnout, the more that will help the “No on 1” side, Potholm said.

Madore, who heads the Maine Grassroots Coalition, said Friday he didn’t think voter turnout will break records. “But I don’t think it’s going to be small for an off-election year. It may be at 50 percent.”

On Friday, Madore made a 5:30 a.m. trip to Bath Iron Works, greeting workers as they went to work. “It was revealing,” Madore said. “We’ve had some opposition, but there was solid support. Some told Madore they were glad to see him. Question 1 “is obviously on people’s minds,” he said.

O’Meara said he has no idea what the turnout will be, but hoped it would be significant. “I’ve heard strong indication there’s a lot of early voting going on,” he said. “That’s good.”

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