The race for governor really kicks off tonight for John Baldacci.

The governor will deliver his last State of the State address, delayed one day so Maine could mark the death of Passamaquoddy leader Melvin Francis, before facing voters in November.

The speech is his opportunity to lay out his successes, to tick off a list of accomplishments and kudos, and to brag about what he’s done. But more important, it’s a chance for him to set the stage for the coming campaign, to counter criticism of his administration in front of a statewide audience and to introduce his vision for a second term.

Baldacci is sometimes underestimated because he does not have the flash or charisma of his predecessor, Angus King. He doesn’t light up a room with his energy or rhetoric. His style is understated – even sedate.

What he does do is win.

At 23, he was elected to the Bangor City Council. He joined the state Senate in 1982, winning six terms. He countered the Republican Revolution of 1994 by winning election to Congress, and was easily re-elected three times before being elected governor in 2000.

What he lacks at the podium, he makes up for with a keen understanding of Maine politics.

The question is whether he can translate that into a second term, when his polling numbers are low and his centerpiece initiative, Dirigo Health, is under assault by friend and foe alike. A SurveyUSA poll from December paints an ugly picture: Only 36 percent of those asked approve of his performance; 59 percent disapprove. Weak numbers for an incumbent heading into an election year.

The poor showing helps explain why the field running for the Blaine House is crowded. Three Republicans – former U.S. Rep. David Emery, state Sen. Peter Mills and state Sen. Chandler Woodcock – are so far competing for the nomination to face Baldacci. Green Party candidate Pat LaMarche is in the race, as are a handful of lesser-known independents.

One indicator of Baldacci’s strength, however, is one man who decided not to run. Former Portland Chief of Police “Media Mike” Chitwood came back to Maine from Pennsylvania, where he now works, to say he wasn’t running. Chitwood’s history would suggest he would thrive in the spotlight of a gubernatorial election, and he told The Associated Press that his “informal” polling showed him as being unbeatable in southern Maine. Yet, he decided not to run. He says the issue of gun control – he’s for it, half the state isn’t – and the prospects of raising $2 million tipped the balance. Maybe. But maybe that informal polling showed underlying support for Baldacci, a Democratic incumbent in a Democratic-leaning state.

Tonight’s State of the State won’t win the election in November. It won’t lose it, either. It’s just the start of a long campaign year in which much can happen.

Pay attention to the governor’s themes. If he has big, new ideas, tonight’s the night we’re likely to hear about them. If he doesn’t, that tells us something, too.

Editor’s note: The State of the State is scheduled to start at 7 p.m. today and will be carried on the stations of the Maine Public Broadcasting Network.