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LEWISTON – TABOR remains overwhelmingly popular with Mainers, and the gubernatorial race is a virtual tie, according to a poll released Monday.

The survey, conducted for WCSH-TV and WLBZ-TV by SurveyUSA, pegged support for incumbent Democratic Gov. John Baldacci at 42 percent and for Republican Chandler Woodcock at 41 percent. Sixteen percent of respondents said they were undecided, and 2 percent said they would support “some other candidate.”

Independents Barbara Merrill and Phillip NaPier and Green Independent Pat LaMarche were not mentioned by name in the gubernatorial poll, a major flaw according to at least two of the candidates in the race.

“By not naming the other three candidates for governor, this survey becomes disturbingly biased toward the major party candidates,” Merrill said. “The state’s No. 1 TV news station, in releasing the results of this misleading poll, does a grave disservice to all voters in Maine.”

Jesse Connolly, Baldacci’s campaign manager, also questioned the poll’s validity.

“It’s not an accurate reflection of how the election will play out,” Connolly said.

“We always knew this race was going to be close,” Connolly said. “But at the end of the day, we think that John Baldacci’s message will resonate with voters.”

“It’s not a scientific poll. It didn’t have all the available options,” LaMarche said. “This is a case of a news organization trying to make the news instead of reporting it.”

The poll also found that 70 percent of Mainers support the Taxpayer Bill of Rights, which will appear on the November ballot as Question 1; 26 percent of respondents said they oppose the measure. Five percent said they are undecided.

In July, 71 percent said they supported TABOR and 25 percent said they opposed it.

“The fact that our support among Mainers has not wavered through the summer should send a message to the tax-funded opposition groups that have been coming out against the measure,” said Mary Adams, chairwoman of the TABOR campaign, in a statement about the poll. “The people of Maine just aren’t buying their tired old gloom and doom arguments.”

TABOR would limit growth in local and state government and force a two-thirds vote of a governing body and a positive referendum vote to raise taxes or fees.

Dennis Bailey, a spokesman for Citizens United to Protect Our Public Safety, Schools and Communities, an anti-TABOR coalition, also questioned the validity of the poll and said that he thinks opinion is more closely divided on TABOR.

“But the biggest thing is that the campaign hasn’t really started yet,” Bailey said, referring to the media blitz that’s expected in the race.

Besides the horse race in the governor’s race, SurveyUSA also released information about how the candidates are performing in smaller demographic groups.

According to those results, Woodcock leads by 10 points among men and trails by 12 points among women. In earlier polls, Woodcock’s advantage among men had been as high as 19 points, but that has narrowed. Woodcock also had been down among voters older than 65 by 1 point. Now he trails in that demographic by 10 points.

Woodcock leads by a margin of 6-1 among voters who approve of President George Bush’s job performance. Baldacci leads by a margin of 3-1 among those who disapprove of Bush.

Among partisans, Woodcock has the support of 81 percent of Republicans, while Baldacci fairs less well among Democrats, with 70 percent saying they would vote for him.

The poll also found a geographic split between the candidates. Baldacci is up by five points in the 1st Congressional District and trails Woodcock by 3 points in the 2nd Congressional District.

Merrill, who took particular exception to the survey, contacted professor Thomas M. Guterbock, the director of the Center for Survey Research at the University of Virginia.

“Most experts agree that survey respondents are more likely to express support of a candidate who is specifically named in a survey question than they would if that candidate is simply categorized generically as ‘someone else,'” Merrill quotes Guterbock as saying. “It is reasonable to conclude that a survey that names only two of the candidates in a multiple-candidate field will tend to underestimate support for those candidates not named in the survey question.”

The Woodcock campaign could not be reached for comment.

The poll was conducted Sept. 10-12, and surveyed 900 Maine adults. Of them, 801 were registered voters and 519 were considered likely voters. The margin of error on the TABOR question is plus or minus 4.4 percent. The margin of error on the gubernatorial question is 4.1 percent.

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