An incumbent. A conservative. A convicted felon. A Green with a concentration on health care. An independent with an anti-partisan streak. These are the choices for Maine’s next governor, so just who are these candidates?

LEWISTON – There are five people running for governor of Maine. All of them are serious, four of them are legitimate contenders.

Incumbent Democrat John Baldacci has kept to a tireless public schedule as he has hopped across the state, mixing in campaign events and official business to stay in the public eye and tout what he considers his policy successes over the last three-and-a-half years. The state’s made progress, Baldacci says, but the job’s not done.

Republican Chandler Woodcock, buoyed by more than $400,000 in spending by the Republican Governors Association, has run a conservative, carefully crafted campaign that has reduced his exposure to unfriendly crowds while working feverishly to motivate his base and meet voters directly. His message: The state is unfriendly to business, and its poor economy and high tax burden are driving people away.

Green Independent Pat LaMarche, who ran for governor in 1998 and was the Green vice presidential nominee in 2004, is concentrating on One Big Idea – universal health care – which she says can boost the economy, lower property taxes and improve health care. She wants to win – says she will win – but needs to capture at least 5 percent of the vote so that her party continues to be officially recognized in Maine. It’s a race within a race for LaMarche.

And independent Barbara Merrill, a former lobbyist and one-term Democratic lawmaker, is trying to follow the game plan executed by independent Angus King when he won the Blaine House in 1994, right down to publishing a book of her policy ideas before the campaign. She decries partisanship and has tried to lay out an agenda friendly to business and to those right of Baldacci, while also appealing to some of the state’s core Democratic constituencies, pro-choicers and environmentalists.

Phillip Morris NaPier, another independent, qualified for the ballot. He’s sincere and likable, but the convicted felon, who was once shot during a confrontation with police, has no money, less name identification and few prospects for winning public office. He has a populist flair, but Kinky Friedman he’s not.

A number of statewide polls have Baldacci with a thin lead over Woodcock, and LaMarche and Merrill significantly behind. A SurveyUSA poll from September put Baldacci at 44 percent, Woodcock at 39 percent, Merrill at 7 percent and LaMarche at 6 percent.

But the numbers that count come on Nov. 7.

Baldacci holds an advantage, said Karl G. Trautman, the chair of the department of social sciences at Central Maine Community College, but if Woodcock is within five or six points late in the race, he has a good chance.

“If he’s within striking distance the weekend before, there’s a real window of opportunity,” Trautman said.

The dynamics of the race, he said, make it difficult for the other two candidates, but not impossible. A single, third-party candidate, he said, would have had a better chance.

“If I saw an October poll showing one of them at 15 or 18 percent, then it’s conceivable,” Trautman said. “But it’s only conceivable if the Baldacci people become so disgusted that they look for alternatives.”

Four-way dynamics

The Democratic Party has stepped up for Baldacci, spending hundreds of thousands of dollars on television ads – dressed up as issue advocacy – that defend the governor’s record, proclaim his virtues and throw stones at Woodcock.

While Woodcock, Merrill and LaMarche qualified for public financing, Baldacci is running a traditionally financed campaign. So far, he’s reported raising a little more than $400,000, almost the same amount that the three challengers received as Maine Clean Election candidates. As Baldacci’s total increases, they will be entitled to matching money, and the total should climb significantly Monday when former President Bill Clinton comes to Portland for a major fundraiser. Predictions inside and outside of the Democratic Party suggest the event could raise between $100,000 and $150,000.

The Republican Governors Association has done the same thing for Woodcock, running some ads that present him in a positive light, and others that attack Baldacci for the state’s lackluster economic performance.

Merrill and LaMarche are going it alone, at least so far, without significant help from outside groups.

As the Democrats and Republican trade fire, Merrill has targeted both Baldacci and, to a lesser extent, Woodcock. LaMarche’s latest TV ad lumps together Baldacci, Woodcock and Merrill with a sharp critique.

“The real factors are in those two people, LaMarche and Merrill. What are they going to do?” Trautman said.

“Merrill and LaMarche have to go positive and say what they’ll do,” Trautman said. “They have to give voters a reason to pull the lever for a Green or an independent candidate.”

The fire within

The activist base of the Republican Party is excited about Woodcock and is working hard for his election, but that same enthusiasm could become a problem.

“Social conservatism gives his campaign its energy,” Trautman said. “But it is also one of his biggest negatives.”

Woodcock has a strong anti-abortion voting record during his three terms in the Legislature and has said that he thinks creationism or intelligent design should be taught alongside evolution in schools, if local school boards desire. He also opposed legislation that made it illegal to discriminate against someone based on their sexual orientation.

“The only time this discussion ever comes up is when the press asks the question or one of the other candidates is accusational about it,” Woodcock said during a meeting with the Sun Journal.

At the same time, Woodcock also recognizes that Maine is a left-leaning state, especially on social issues.

“I don’t have a social agenda. I’ve never had a social agenda. I do have a set of values, as everybody at the table has a set of values,” Woodcock said. “My set of values is a bit more traditional than some people.”

“It will be our job to portray our agenda as focusing on economics, on health insurance, on taxes. And that will be the question of this gubernatorial election.”

Woodcock’s appeal on the economy has gained traction and is supported by a persistent pessimism that seems to haunt the state; it was fortified by a Federal Reserve Bank of Boston report that showed only Maine and hurricane-ravaged Louisiana failed to grow in 2005.

“In order to grow the economy, the government needs to have a very comfortable relationship with the business community, and I think that relationship has been very adversarial for a decade,” Woodcock said.

“Obviously the people of the state feel like the policy hasn’t worked,” Woodcock said. “The governor has a record, and that record is not as acceptable to people as maybe his congressional record was.”

Trying to sweeten the ‘sourness’

After studying Maine for 18 months, the Brookings Institution recently released a report that identified a number of positive economic trends, including a growing population, growing incomes and low unemployment. But the report also found that the state’s tax burden is too high and too dependent on property taxes, and that state government and school administration need to be cut.

“The economic wheel may now be turning in Maine’s direction,” the report said. “And yet … Maine remains a work in progress – its mood anxious and at times sour, its future success by no means assured. Much seems promising, yes, but the average Mainer seems frustrated, even disturbed by the tenor and pace of change.”

Baldacci is running on his record, Trautman said, and it’s mixed.

“Baldacci could run a cautious campaign and squeak by,” Trautman said. “Some people don’t like him because he seems too milquetoast. One of the things that Baldacci has a problem with is he doesn’t seem to be courageous. He’s done some things, like Dirigo Health and gay rights, but he’s going very slow.”

Even some Democratic Party insiders are worried about a lack of enthusiasm among the rank and file.

“There continues to be a sourness or a negativity that’s not warranted,” Baldacci said earlier this month. “For the first two years, Maine outpaced New England. That third year, we hit a head wind with the BRAC and MBNA being sold. … A lot of people didn’t know what was going to happen, and there was a lot of uncertainty.”

There have been successes, Baldacci said, but there’s more that needs to be done.

“What I’m asking the people is to use my experience, my work ethic and values to be able to finish the job that I’ve started,” Baldacci said. “Maine was coming out of a recession, was in a very difficult financial time and it’s taken longer than I wanted to to get out of it. We’ve tried to increase education and research and development and economic development and opportunities, but at the same time … I’m not satisfied, (and we know) we have more work to do.”

Details, details, details

Perhaps more than any other challenger, Barbara Merrill has laid out the details of what she would do if elected.

Her plans are extensive and defy classification as liberal or conservative. She would eliminate the corporate income tax, push for merit pay for teachers, allow a local-option sales tax and cut state spending.

“We have to rein in government spending,” Merrill said. “That’s not an easy message. It doesn’t take very long before you get to a program people care about.”

She supports abortion rights and equal rights. She opposed raising the tax on cigarettes by a $1 while in the Legislature. She supports universal higher education for students who agree to avoid drugs, alcohol and tobacco. She even proposed creating a casino train that would prompt private industry to expand passenger rail service through Maine to Canada.

“My campaign is based on the idea that Mainers really want someone to be honest with them,” Merrill said.

“I’m disappointed with this Legislature. I’m disappointed with this governor,” Merrill said. “You can’t govern like you’re the only party in town.”

Merrill says that she thinks the state could be set up for a replay of 1974, when independent Jim Longley was elected after trailing much of the summer.

“People were angry with Republicans nationally and disappointed with Democrats and the governor in the state,” Merrill said.

While there might be a national wave against Republicans, the animosity in the state hasn’t reached 1974 levels, said Trautman.

“It’s not the same dynamic,” he said. “There was a government shutdown. That hasn’t been the case in the last four years of state government. That level of bitterness isn’t there.”

Clarity and fear

Personally engaging and charismatic, LaMarche somehow manages to come across as the un-politician despite having run for governor in 1998 and vice president in 2004. She even gave the nominating speech for Ralph Nader when he ran for president in 2000.

She’s no neophyte, and she has run a sophisticated third-party campaign.

LaMarche is pushing for Maine to adopt universal health care, an idea that’s supported by polling but fails to gain traction politically. It’s not LaMarche’s only issue, but it is the backbone of her campaign.

“There are preconceived notions that you really can only overcome face to face,” LaMarche said. “There are smaller, poorer countries that do it. Maine could do it. We’ve tried absolutely everything else.

“Our health care is the most costly, the least compassionate, and we’re dying,” LaMarche said. “When a person is walking around with a lump they can’t get checked out, that’s a day of misery, one day after another. There’s no compassion in that.”

According to LaMarche, the governor is the one celebrity who can travel around the state and make things happen.

“Health care may not be the whole problem, but it’s a massive problem, which is why every other developed nation has it,” LaMarche said.

“It takes a lot more courage to be an elderly woman who cuts her pills in half so she can afford food and heat than it does to get a health-care plan through,” LaMarche said. “If only we had half the courage of the people who are living under our broken system.”

LaMarche says her plan would require a new payroll tax, but it would reduce costs for health care, workers compensation, property taxes and excise taxes. In addition, it would be a major draw to companies looking for relief from the health-care crunch.

“If nothing else, on a lot of issues she has clarity,” Trautman said of LaMarche. “That will scare a lot of people.”