Will Rep. Tom Allen, D-Maine, run for the U.S. Senate in 2008?

All signs suggest he will soon declare his challenge to the incumbent Republican Sen. Susan Collins. In fact, his announcement may be imminent. If Allen jumps into the race, he will be the strongest candidate Democrats have put forward in years to recapture a Senate seat, and in the party’s legacy of Ed Muskie and George Mitchell.

The major strength of Allen’s potential candidacy has little to do with him; instead, it lies in the weakness of the Republicans. If you think the atmosphere is gloomy for the GOP now, just wait till next year – 2008 is shaping up to be even darker.

New York Times columnist David Brooks describes the environment thusly: “Republicans are privately disgusted with how President Bush has led their party and the nation, but they don’t publicly offer any alternativesThey try to block Democratic initiatives, but they don’t offer the country any new ways to think about the GOP. They are like people quietly marching to their doom.”

National polls confirm dissatisfaction with Republicans, in general, and President Bush’s management of Iraq, in particular. A Pew Research Center poll released March 22 found Democrats enjoy a huge lead in party identification over Republicans (50 perccent to 35 percent). A CBS/New York Times Poll conducted April 20-24 found 71 percent of Americans disapprove of the way Bush is handling Iraq. More troubling for the GOP is the fact that more than a third (34 percent) of Republicans also feel that way.

A recent poll conducted by Lake Research Partners of likely Maine voters revealed similar dissatisfaction with Iraq policy. Conducted between April 9 and 11, the poll found 53 percent of those polled supported setting a timetable for the withdrawal of troops within a year, while only 36 percent did not.

Iraq provides Allen an opportunity to give Collins the race of her political life. If he runs, he will likely contrast his recent vote to mandate a troop withdrawal plan against her numerous votes to reject timetables for bringing troops home from Iraq.

Allen’s biggest challenge is making the case for change without seeming too negative. One way to accomplish this is by letting independent liberal interest groups highlight her unpopular Iraq position, such as what was done recently by television ads financed by MoveOn.org.

These ads indirectly helped Allen’s candidacy, while preserving his positive image. Expect to see much more interest group advocacy if Allen enters the race.

Allen could also point to his initial vote against the war as evidence of his judgment and prescience. Specifically, he could cite a September 2002 column he wrote for the Portland Press-Herald, in which he stated, “Unlike other recent U.S. military campaigns, this time our allies appear to have no stomach for an invasion. We may foot the whole bill. More significantly, the absence of an international coalition backing us up could greatly hinder the war’s effectiveness, and make it more likely that the conflict would fuel greater hostility to the United States and instability in moderate Muslim nations.”

Although people don’t like to be reminded “I told you so,” Allen’s now-perceptive foresight is bound to be skillfully weaved into a campaign to make him seem more sagacious than Collins.

Collins’ problem is she seems to want to have it both ways on Iraq: while she criticizes President Bush’s strategy, she still backs the administration on critical Senate votes. While her centrist approach to policy has been her greatest political strength, it is failing her now. The middle ground in Iraq is rapidly disappearing; the situation is so clearly disintegrating that hanging on to a moderate approach is increasingly ludicrous.

She voted to authorize the war and has consistently voted against setting up a timeline for withdrawing U.S. troops. As she has largely remained loyal to President Bush, the majority of people want to try another approach.

The 2008 campaign could be like last year, except juiced. The electorate’s anger could sweep away even more incumbent Republicans who stand too close with the President Bush on Iraq, particularly if the challengers are smart and well-financed.

Moreover, if John McCain wins the Republican presidential nomination, Collins’ Iraq troubles could magnify. It will be difficult for Collins to distance herself from McCain, since she supports his presidential bid. McCain has been a vocal supporter of Bush’s recent Iraq escalation.

If he runs, Tom Allen will be an underdog. Collins is still popular, and incumbents rarely lose. The potential race, however, is bound to be unusually interesting and dynamic.