WASHINGTON (AP) – Voting for the 2008 presidential race could begin in … 2007?

Unbelievable, but true.

That’s one potential scenario in the fallout from South Carolina Republicans’ decision Thursday to hold their presidential primary earlier than planned – on Jan. 19 of next year.

Given that change, New Hampshire will be forced to move its primary to at least Jan. 12 under a state law that requires it to protect its first-in-the-nation primary status.

Should that occur, Iowa then would have to, according to its law, shift its leadoff caucuses as well. To avoid the holiday crunch, it’s possible Iowa could choose a mid-December date.

“Not only is this unprecedented, what’s also unprecedented is the number of journalists who could spend Thanksgiving in Iowa and Christmas in New Hampshire,” said Ken Mehlman, a former Republican National Committee chairman and President Bush’s 2004 campaign manager.

Iowa left little doubt it would do whatever necessary to ensure it kicks off the nominating process as it has for three decades.

Said Gov. Chet Culver, a Democrat: “Iowa will go first, that is the bottom line.”

South Carolina’s move – and the expected aftershocks in Iowa, New Hampshire and other early voting states – is the latest chapter in the extraordinary movement in the presidential primary calendar for Republicans and Democrats as states such as California and New York jockey for more power in choosing the party nominees.

The ever-changing contest schedule – and the earlier start to the balloting – has created an enormous level of discomfort for national parties trying to impose discipline on the states as well as presidential campaigns trying to figure out strategies when voting could begin in just four months.

As a deterrence, both national party committees insist they will penalize states that schedule nominating contests before Feb. 5 by withholding half of their delegates to the conventions next summer.

But that threat has largely been ignored. States assume that, as in past elections, whoever the party nominates will take over the national committees before the conventions and won’t enforce the penalty.

Florida recently flouted the warnings and moved its primary for Republicans and Democrats to Jan. 29. That prompted the South Carolina GOP, which has fiercely protected its first-in-the-South primary tradition, to maneuver for a date earlier than its originally scheduled Feb. 2. The South Carolina Democratic Party said it would stick with Jan. 29, consistent with Democratic National Committee rules.

On Thursday, Katon Dawson, the state’s GOP chairman, announced in Concord, N.H., that South Carolina Republicans would vote Jan. 19. He stood alongside New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner, whom Dawson called an ally in protecting the traditional early role of both states – and the retail politicking – in the presidential nominating process.

“This date will help solidify a combined 83-year history of being first in the nation and first in the South,” Dawson said. “In our two states, picking presidents is about so much more than 30-second ads and clever soundbites.”

Given South Carolina’s change, New Hampshire must, under state law, schedule its primary no later than Jan. 12. An Iowa law calls for that state to then shift its leadoff caucuses, and officials could choose mid-December to avoid the holiday season. Those states traditionally have held their Democratic and Republican contests on the same day.

During an interview with The Associated Press, Gardner, who holds the power to set New Hampshire’s date, said he has no plans to do so anytime soon.

“I just don’t know,” he said. “One thing at a time. This is one more piece of the puzzle.”

In Iowa, GOP Chairman Ray Hoffmann said: “There’s nothing I can do or even think about until I know what New Hampshire is going to do. As far as I’m concerned we are going to be No. 1 in the nation. As far as a date, I don’t know yet.”

As of Tuesday, Iowa was slated to hold its contest Jan. 14. The DNC wants New Hampshire to go on Jan. 22, but Gardner has not indicated he would cooperate.

Nevada’s GOP and Democratic caucuses are scheduled for Jan. 19. Both parties said they had no plans to change the date. “We’ll wait and see how the dominos fall,” Nevada GOP executive director Zachary Moyle said, leaving the door open a bit.

The leading presidential campaigns watched the South Carolina-triggered scenario unfold with muted interest. All have been anticipating such a move for months and have drawn up strategies based on the assumption of an earlier start to the balloting, including the possibility of December voting.

“What all the campaigns are struggling with, grappling with, is how do you build a campaign with this accelerated schedule?” said Steve Duprey, a former New Hampshire GOP chairman who now is a top adviser to Sen. John McCain. “The challenge for all campaigns is how to set the pace of the campaign, particularly with your paid media so you have the impact.”

In separate statements, aides to Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney and McCain suggested they wouldn’t let the evolving calendar ruffle them.

Matt Rhoades, a Romney spokesman, said: “We can’t control the primary calendar but respect the process and intend to continue to run our current campaign strategy.”

Exposing rifts in the GOP about the calendar, party leaders elsewhere took issue with South Carolina’s move.

“So, while we enter the holiday season, we’re going to have all these politicians all over the airwaves? I don’t think that’s going to be very acceptable to the American people, and I would caution all these states to rethink what they’re doing,” said Bob Bennett, the GOP chairman in Ohio, which holds its primary March 4. “This is silly.”

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Associated Press Writers Mike Glover in Des Moines, Iowa, Philip Elliott in Concord, N.H., and Kathleen Hennessey in Las Vegas contributed to this report.

AP-ES-08-09-07 1725EDT