With SAD 43 beginning the school year with an enrollment dipping below 1,500 for the first time, and neighboring SAD 21 down a few students, a recent demographic study appears to be pretty close to the mark.

With 2,476 total students, the two districts have fewer than the number required by the state mandate of 2,500 for administrative consolidation.

SAD 43 Superintendent Jim Hodgkin said enrollment, at 1,498, is down 82 pupils from last year.

Tom Ward, superintendent of SAD 21, said his district’s total of 978 is off by only a few from last year’s figure, but down from 1,043 for school year 2005-2006.

The declining numbers have more implications than falling short of the recent state administrative consolidation mandate. It means less state aid for education, and a gradual reduction in professional and support staff for both districts.

“The area is getting older. There are fewer families with children, and older residents with grown children are not being replaced by families,” Hodgkin said.

The largest classes are at Mountain Valley High School, with an enrollment of nearly 600 students, and the middle school has lost pupils. Elementary classes appear to be up a little, at a total of 607, Hodgkin said.

During the past few years, both districts have experienced a reduction of professional staff, but because of attrition and retirements, only one person has been laid off at SAD 21 and none at SAD 43.

Hodgkin expects student enrollment to decline for another three years, then level off at about 1,350. Ward said when enrollment in his district levels off, it will not be much below the current school year’s enrollment, at least partially because of the new elementary school currently under construction that he said could attract families.

Hodgkin said all schools, except the high school, have experienced staff reductions, but he expects the high school eventually to lose teachers.

Right now, SAD 43 employs about 165 professional staff while SAD 21 employs about 96.

Fewer high school students in the future means fewer elective courses in both districts. SAD 21 has reduced the need for electives because a new course of study in the basic educational curriculum requires the completion of more credits, Ward said.

Hodgkin said electives that may be eliminated include those dealing with graphic arts and industrial arts because of the offerings available at the Region 9 School of Applied Technology.

Regardless of the final partnerships with which the two districts align themselves, both will continue to share services as the opportunities arise. Currently, SAD 43 is allowing Dirigo High School advanced Spanish students to attend classes at Mountain Valley High School, and both districts share an occupational therapist. In the past, the two schools shared a social worker until it was determined that each district needed such a position full time.

The two districts also share services with SAD 44 in Bethel, another of the potential partners submitted to the state Department of Education.