The outcome of the closely watched 2008 Senate race between incumbent Republican Sen. Susan Collins and Democratic Rep. Tom Allen might be decided by three factors: the power of incumbency, where each candidate comes from in Maine and how things are going in Iraq.

If the Collins’ campaign can capitalize on her incumbency and subtly remind voters where she is from, she will probably be re-elected. If Iraq continues to torment the national political soul, Allen could triumph.

Collins’ greatest strengths are summarized in two words: incumbency and Caribou. Most incumbents are re-elected in American politics. In 2006, 79 percent of senators were re-elected. In 2004 it was even higher: 96 percent. Voters have to find a pretty compelling reason to send one home.

Caribou will help Collins because of its location: a small city way up near the geographical edge of Maine’s sprawling second district. Election results for statewide races have been unkind to politicians from Southern Maine in recent years. Let’s look at some senators:

Sen. Olympia Snowe grew up in Auburn. Although Sen. George Mitchell’s residence was listed as Portland when he ran for the Senate, he was born in Waterville. Sen. Bill Cohen is from Bangor. Ed Muskie was born in Rumford.

What about governors? The record here is more mixed. Although both Gov. John Baldacci and Gov. John McKernan Jr. are from Bangor, Gov. Angus King and Gov. Joe Brennan are from Southern Maine. Before Brennan, however, one must travel back to January 1953 before finding another governor from Southern Maine.

How is this explained?

In an interview on www.mydd.com, Allen (from Portland) was asked about the difficulties of people from the 1st Congressional District getting elected statewide. He replied, “I just think that’s an historical accident, depends upon the people who are running.”

Well, maybe.

There also could be unstated bias at work. Do some people think since Southern Maine has a big share of the state’s wealth and economic opportunity, “they” darned well won’t get top positions in politics as well?

If this is happening, it might be partially explained by Maine’s electoral sense of fairness. To be fair, one needs balance. If a candidate from outside Southern Maine is elected, some form of equilibrium is maintained – it makes no difference that the majority of the state’s population is found in the south.

The best issue Allen has is Iraq. He has shown wisdom from the beginning on it. Before the United States went to war, he warned of the dangers of an invasion. Against a backdrop of an heavily orchestrated campaign by the White House to drive the nation into this pre-emptive war, he had the courage to vote “no.”

When I visited candidate Web sites just prior to writing this column, I saw how the campaigns emphasized different themes. The biggest feature on Allen’s are the words “Iraq: Wrong War, Wrong Place, Wrong Time,” with a link to a recent column he wrote. There are also three Iraq stories linked under “latest news.” There was also a “Tom TV,” where I could see six video clips; five dealt with Iraq and one was his announcement statement.

In contrast, on the Collins Web site, I saw a small section titled “the road ahead for Iraq” in the bottom left-hand corner. The video attached to it has a reasonable-sounding Collins explaining the facts on the ground in Iraq (as she sees it) and the difficult choices ahead.

The site has many other non-Iraq features, too, including a story about her efforts to promote a national mercury monitoring program. Her site seems to say that Iraq policy is only part of why she should be re-elected.

A year from now, the last thing Collins wants this campaign to be about is Iraq. Unfortunately, it may very well be.

President Bush appears committed to run out the clock and pass the war onto his successor. Unless something unexpected happens, there will be at least 100,000 American troops over there a year from now.

The United States will also be 5 and 1/2 years into its occupation.

The choices for Collins are uninviting; if she sides with the administration on upcoming key Iraq votes, she could be seen as out-of-touch. If she goes beyond a rhetorical break with Bush and votes for legislation setting a date for troop withdrawal, she risks alienating some of the Republican base, and open her to charges of campaign conversion.

What will next November look like? Will voters be so fed up with the Iraq mess that they will replace Collins with Allen? Or will incumbency and her Caribou roots and keep Collins in office for six more years? Good questions.

Only time will tell.

Karl Trautman is chairperson of the social sciences department at Central Maine Community College. He received his doctorate in political science from the University of Hawaii. He can be reached at [email protected].