Thursday
Packers at Lions
8:15 p.m., NFL Network
I fail to see how keeping games like this and the upcoming Patriots/Giants game inaccessible to 70 percent of the country is in the best interest of the NFL. But, hey, Roger Goodell is married to Fox News and former Channel 6 anchor babe Jane Skinner, so I’m going to give him the benefit of the doubt.
Sunday
Seahawks at Eagles
1 p.m., FOX 23
Give the Eagles credit. They sure have mastered losing to the Patriots by a field goal.
Jaguars at Colts
1 p.m., Channel 13
David Garrard deserves to be in the Pro Bowl before Peyton Manning. There, I said it.
Giants at Bears
4:15 p.m., Channel 13
Eli Manning takes on Rex Grossman, and all of the advancements in quarterbacking made by the likes of Tom Brady, Brett Favre and Peyton Manning will have been for naught.
Bengals at Steelers
8:15 p.m., Channel 6
Good news – Heinz Field has been upgraded from a morass to a quagmire.
Monday
Patriots at Ravens
8:30 p.m., ESPN
The last prime time game for the Patriots of the regular season. Thousands of cranky Patriots fans yawn with gratitude.
Huddle up
Let’s just end the talk right now that the Patriots don’t have a running game. There are legitimate questions being raised about the running game right now, but let’s not get so carried away with so much nit-picking an unbeaten team that is currently seventh in rushing yards per game and averages a healthy 4.1 per carry that we declare it incapable of running the ball.
The 1986 Patriots, now that was a team that couldn’t run the ball.
That team, which was coming off New England’s first Super Bowl appearance, averaged a pathetic 2.9 yards per carry. Craig James and Tony Collins, who led the Pats to Super Bowl XX in spite of Tony Eason, averaged 2.8 and 2.6 yards per carry, respectively. Yet, the Pats still won 11 games and the AFC East before losing to Denver in the playoffs.
The 1986 Patriots and countless Miami Dolphin teams of the Dan Marino era proved that you don’t need to be able to run the ball to win during the regular season. But they also proved that you need some semblance of balance to win in the playoffs.
Some people seem to think Bill Belichick doesn’t know this, and are all in a panic because the Patriots are allowing Tom Brady to throw more than Daisuke Matsuzaka.
The 2007 Patriots didn’t start out the season looking like an Arena Football team. Through the first six games of the season, they ran 34 times per game. Over the last five games, that number has dropped to 26 times per game.
Talent undoubtedly has something to do with the drop. When you’ve got Randy Moss, Wes Welker and Donte Stallworth on your roster, you’re naturally going to throw it more. Game-planning could have something to do with the drop, too. The Pats ran a season-low 16 times Sunday night against Philadelphia, a team that loves to blitz. Running the ball repeatedly against the Eagles makes as much sense as running repeatedly into a brick wall.
But it is undeniable that they have been running less since Sammy Morris got hurt in the sixth game against Dallas. Some are interpreting the drop-off as a sign of Belichick’s discontent with Laurence Maroney. The second-year running back’s season-high for carries, 20, came against the Jets in Week 1. He hasn’t had more than 15 carries in a game since he returning from a groin injury that forced him to the sidelines for three weeks.
During Maroney’s hiatus, Morris ran 21 times in back-to-back games against Cincinatti and Cleveland. During the brief time they were both healthy, Morris seemed poised to at least split the carries with Maroney, if not get a majority of them. Now, with Morris out for the year, Maroney is clearly the lead back in terms of the number of times he’s going to get the ball, but he still didn’t see the field for half of Sunday night’s game. Conclude from that what you will.
The Patriots are going to throw first no matter what. The head coach has intimated it. The offensive coordinator, Josh McDaniels, has flat out said it. But in case you haven’t been paying attention, the Patriots have always looked to throw first since Tom Brady became the quarterback, if not earlier.
If you’re not concerned about the Patriots drifting away from the run, you’re probably thinking of the 2003 team as proof that they can throw, throw, throw their way to the Lombardi Trophy. That team averaged a meager 3.4 yards per carry and was led during the regular season by Antowain Smith’s modest 642 yards (Smith missed three games with an injury).
But guess what happened in the playoffs – Smith got the ball more. After averaging 14 carries per game during the regular season, Smith rushed 21 times per game against Tennessee, Indianapolis and Carolina in the playoffs, averaging 3.9 yards per carry.
Chalk that up to the January weather, if you like, but despite the fact that the Titans game was played in Arctic temperatures and the Colts game was played in a snow storm, his playoff high of 26 carries came in climate-controlled Reliant Stadium against the Panthers.
So what conclusion can we draw from this history? The Patriots need to be able to run the ball during the playoffs. Doesn’t matter what the weather is. Doesn’t matter if they clone Randy Moss. And just because Laurence Maroney isn’t getting the ball in a late-November game against a non-conference opponent doesn’t mean he’s not going to get it in the AFC Championship game.
Bill Belichick already knows his team can run the ball. But he’s not going to let the rest of us know until it really matters.
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