Packers (-8) 40, Seahawks 31

Picking Seattle to win a road playoff game is like picking a lion to maul a Polar Bear in Alaska. For whatever reason, the Seahawks are a completely different team when they don’t have the 12th Man behind them. Ryan Grant will have a big game on the ground, and Brett Favre will give his recent habit of playoff recklessness a one-week respite.

Patriots (-13) 38, Jaguars 17

If you think for a second that Bill Belichick is going to let Jacksonville’s running game beat him, you probably had Ron Paul winning in New Hampshire, too. The Patriots are going to spread the Jaguars out, attack their suspect secondary and put them in an early hole, which is the last place Jacksonville wants to be. Fred Taylor or Maurice Jones-Drew will break a big run or two on a draw play or on a play where the Jags have the Pats’ defense spread out, but Jacksonville will not be able to consistently pound the ball on the ground, as much as they may want to do so. David Garrard is going to have to throw the ball 35 times, and as we saw last week, he’s not as mistake-free as his regular season led us to believe.

Colts (-8.5) 28, Chargers 18

The Chargers have always given Peyton Manning problems, but because Manning has a defense now, he’ll have the benefit of a short field to work with more often than not. Much like the Titans last week, the Colts will contain LaDainian Tomlinson, and with Antonio Gates out or, at the very least, rendered ineffective by a dislocated toe, Philip Rivers is going to force a lot of throws. He’s good for at least three picks. San Diego’s only hope is that Shawn Merriman and Co. can harass Manning enough to get him to throw five or six interceptions like he did in their regular-season meeting. And even then, they needed Adam Vinatieri to choke to pull out a win. Even a team with bolts on their helmets can’t expect lightning to strike twice.

Cowboys (-7.5) 28, Giants 27

This one comes down to who protects their quarterback best. Both teams do it pretty well, but both teams get after the quarterback pretty well, too. The Giants have played their best on the road all season, and Eli Manning is playing the best he’s played all season. The Cowboys didn’t look very impressive in the final few weeks of the season. Plus, as we know, it’s difficult to beat a team three times in a season. All that having been said, I picked the Cowboys to face the Patriots in the Super Bowl, and I’m not backing off it now. Nick Folk kicks the game-winning field goal with no time left.

Last week: 3-1

Season: 163-95