AUGUSTA (AP) – From the first-place finisher, expect a triumphant claim of victory and probably some talk about momentum. But for the also-rans, Maine’s three-day Republican caucuses on Super Bowl weekend will be ripe for dismissal as one small, nonbinding beauty contest or straw poll lost in the anticipation over Super Tuesday.

State party officials themselves are modest about the import of the upcoming GOP caucuses and what they refer to as a “survey of presidential preference.”

Citing state party rules, GOP officials explain in a caucus guide: “The ballots will be tallied and reported to the county and state committees for publicity purposes only. The results of the balloting DO NOT BIND state delegates to a presidential preference.”

State Republican caucuses will be held Feb. 1-3, Friday into Sunday. The Sunday schedule, however, is scant and organizers plan to announce all-but-final results on Saturday.

(Maine Democrats gather on Feb. 10, five days after Super Tuesday primaries and caucuses are held in nearly two dozen states.)

Caucus voters choose delegates to the state conventions. Republicans meet May 2-3 and Democrats on May 30-June 1, both in Augusta.

To date, says Maine Republican Party Executive Director Julie O’Brien, activity on behalf of the various GOP presidential hopefuls is relatively high.

“I mean the phone is not stopping,” she says.

Supporters of former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee are busy and those backing Sen. John McCain of Arizona and ex-Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts are stepping up their efforts, according to O’Brien.

She says former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani has a presence.

But most active?

“If I had to say,” ventures O’Brien, “Ron Paul,” the Texas congressman.

Democrats apportion state convention delegates according to candidate showings in presidential voting at the caucuses.

“People who are elected at the caucuses as state delegates are bound (under party rules) to support the candidates they were elected at the caucuses to support,” says Maine Democratic Party Executive Director Arden Manning.

State convention delegates select delegates to the national conventions, set for Aug. 25-28 for the Democrats in Denver and Sept. 1-4 for Republicans in Minneapolis-St. Paul.

Maine sends 21 delegates to the Republican National Convention, where 1,191 votes are needed to win the nomination. The Democratic National Convention will seat 34 delegates from Maine and award the nomination to the candidate who collects at least 2,025 votes.

The status of the Democratic and Republican races by the time Mainers do their voting is obviously not known, but it is mathematically impossible for any candidate to lock up the nomination on Feb. 5, according to an Associated Press analysis.

State Republican Party officials, in their caucus guide, say the timing of the Maine GOP caucuses was based “on what we anticipated would happen nationally” and took into account National Republican Committee dictates.

“We wanted to go before 2/5, “Super Tuesday,” and before Maine Dems on 2/10 to maximize publicity. The nonbinding aspect of the process allows us to go earlier than 2/5 allowed by RNC rules and gives us the flexibility to adapt to the dynamics of the race,” the guide says.

Historically, Maine has usually served as little more than a scenic vista overlook along the campaign trail.

Four years ago in state convention voting after the Democratic caucuses in Maine, 24 pledged national delegate positions were apportioned among the top three finishers. Eventual nominee John Kerry claimed 11 slots, Howard Dean seven and Dennis Kucinich six.

Kerry went on to win Maine in the general election, besting President George W. Bush by 54 percent to 45 percent. That put Maine in the Democratic column for the fourth presidential election in a row.

In 2000, when both Democrats and Republicans held primary elections in Maine, Al Gore defeated Bill Bradley by 54 percent to 41 percent while Bush beat John McCain by 51 percent to 44 percent. That fall, Gore won the state, taking 49 percent of the vote. Bush had 44 percent and Ralph Nader had 6 percent.

Bill Clinton twice won Maine as part of his general election victories, but first claimed the Democratic nomination without a big boost in the state.

As part of his 1996 re-election, Clinton trounced Republican Bob Dole in Maine by 52 percent to 31 percent, as Ross Perot garnered 14 percent. En route to the GOP nomination that year, Dole had won Maine’s Republican primary with 46 percent of the vote, while Patrick Buchanan took 24 percent, Steve Forbes 15 percent and Lamar Alexander 7 percent.

Maine’s 1992 Democratic caucuses were won by Jerry Brown, and then-President George H.W. Bush was the natural GOP selection. Bush not only lost to Clinton in the fall in Maine but finished 316 votes behind Perot in third place. The final breakdown was Clinton 39 percent, and Perot and Bush both with 30 percent.

Through the 1980s, Maine went Republican in three presidential elections.

In 1980 Bush was something of a favorite son in Maine but Ronald Reagan gained the Republican nomination and then won the state narrowly in November. Reagan took 46 percent of the vote to beat Democratic President Jimmy Carter, who had 42 percent. Independent John Anderson won 10 percent. The state’s Democratic caucuses that year produced a vigorous battle between Carter and Sen. Edward Kennedy of Massachusetts in which Carter fought off Kennedy’s challenge.

Four years later, Gary Hart won Maine’s Democratic caucuses but ultimately gave way to former Vice President Walter Mondale. Reagan rolled to re-election over Mondale in November, winning Maine by 61 percent to 39 percent.

In 1988 while Vice President Bush was broadly supported by Maine Republicans, Michael Dukakis won the Democratic caucuses with Jesse Jackson finishing second. Bush, in winning the White House, defeated Dukakis in Maine by 55 percent to 44 percent.

Looking ahead to this year’s Feb. 10 Democratic caucuses, absentee balloting has already begun, with a deadline of Feb. 6 for getting ballots in.

With the Democratic field still focused elsewhere, in Maine “I think we’re starting to see it ramp up a little bit,” Manning says.

AP-ES-01-27-08 1200EST

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