The Iraqis, Brits, French, Chinese and Israelis don’t get a vote. But that doesn’t mean they don’t have strong preferences about President Bush’s successor.

The two-term president and his Iraq war are so unpopular that, to many around the world, any candidate will be an improvement.

Far more than in 2000, when Bush first ran for president and was ridiculed for his malapropisms and ignorance of foreign leaders’ names, U.S. allies and adversaries alike recognize the epochal change this next presidency could bring.

Will it usher in a new era of isolationism and anti-globalization that could push the world economy into depression and further violence? Or will the White House’s new occupant reach out with fresh ideas and an open mind, to form new alliances and defuse tensions, including the terrorist menace?

These towering questions engage millions around the world. When an NBC microphone failed last month at the Iowa caucuses, the Swedish television crew following Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., offered a loaner.

How the Germans and Russians, or the Czechs and Japanese, view the respective candidates also could influence how U.S. voters regard their foreign policy credentials.

Among many foreigners, Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., remains the overwhelming favorite, representing both stability, via husband Bill’s popular presidency, and also change, away from Bush.

That’s true even as she sees her popularity ebb in favor of Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., the telegenic candidate whom many nostalgic Europeans – especially young Germans – started comparing to John F. Kennedy right after Obama’s Iowa win.

In Africa, where Obama’s half-Kenyan background is a natural plus, some political commentators see him as a true outsider and a real small-d democrat who would break the dynastic Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton cycle that reminds too many of their own inbred politics.

Clinton is by far the favored candidate in Israel, where she’s seen as an uncompromising supporter who will continue the active diplomacy of her husband’s presidency.

Still, Obama has picked up some American Jewish support, despite a nasty whispering campaign focused on his middle name, Hussein – a name reflective of his father’s roots rather than of his own Christian faith. Ironically, the very nuance implied by Obama’s mixed background and the international character of his childhood, when he spent time in Indonesia, also creates excitement, including in the Arab world. The idea is growing abroad that his presidency could really change the tenor and character of American policy in the Middle East.

Many Iraqis still prefer the known quantities of a McCain presidency. The senator has demonstrated engagement with repeated visits to Iraq.

Yet Russia is hoping it won’t be McCain, seen as “the last Cold Warrior,” who would bulk up U.S. military spending and end the cordial ranch chats that outgoing Russian leader Vladimir Putin enjoyed with Bush.

Some overseas worry that a Democratic victory would usher in an era of American isolationism unseen since the early part of the 20th century – especially if the 44th presidency coincides with a deep recession.

So far, there is little evidence of this, although Clinton, a longtime free-trade advocate, has recently tempered her support of free trade agreements, while Obama once incautiously said he’d ban all toys imported from China.

The truth is, the prevailing view from London to Lahore is that a Democrat must win – because how could Bush’s GOP possibly prevail after all the trouble he has wrought in Iraq?

It’s as if McCain’s post-surge surge didn’t count at all.

Nor is this myopia confined to overseas observers.

Just as the ideological nature of candidate Bush’s foreign policy team stayed largely hidden behind his many verbal miscues, so the real story of America’s next president may go unrevealed until the moment he, or she, faces their first foreign policy crisis in office.

Elizabeth Sullivan is foreign affairs columnist and an associate editor of the editorial pages for The Plain Dealer of Cleveland. E-mail her at [email protected].