RUMFORD – Both Maine’s snowpack and flood potential this spring are above normal, according to Tom Hawley, a hydrologist with the National Weather Service in Gray.

Mix in a very active weather pattern capable of dumping rain, sleet, ice and snow, accompanied by warm temperatures, and alarms sound.

“If we get a warm-up and 3 to 4 inches of rain, we’d be in trouble,” Hawley said by phone Tuesday afternoon.

He likened the potential situation to that of the sudden spring thaw in April 1987 when much of the state flooded.

“In April 2001, we had a very deep snowpack and we had concerns, but we went into a drought and we had a slow melt,” he said.

This winter, there was a brief meltdown in January with above-normal temperatures that month and into February, which prevented river ice from thickening.

“On the Carrabassett and Sandy rivers, they certainly could have ice jams, but the ice is not as thick as it could be. That’s a big help,” he said.

Water in the snow, however, is the bigger concern, Hawley said.

According to Maine Snow Survey maps, as of the week of Feb. 16 to 20, Rumford had between 9 and 12 inches of water in its 31- to 36-inch-deep snowpack. Auburn’s had 8 to 9 inches of water.

New maps are expected on Wednesday, according to state geologist Robert Marvinney with the Maine Geological Survey in Augusta.

His staff was out on Tuesday measuring the thickness and weight of snow to determine water density.

“When the density gets higher, it’s ready to melt. Right now, it’s not terribly dense and it can absorb a lot of rain,” Marvinney said.

“Sometime between now and July 1, it’s all going to melt. We’re certain about that.”