The nation’s economic slowdown didn’t exactly catch merchants like Fox Keim by surprise.

Keim, vice president of Kittery Trading Post, joined other retailers in trimming inventory earlier this year. What he and others didn’t anticipate was a global financial meltdown, credit crunch and combustible presidential election that would combine and explode on the eve of their busiest selling period.

Fewer seasonal openings

Now, in addition to worrying about what to stock and who will buy it, Keim has another concern: How many people should work at his business?

“You don’t want to make promises to people and then let them go,” Keim said. “So you’re walking a fine line.”

As things look now, Kittery Trading Post will hire half as many workers as it did last year for the holiday shopping season, roughly 35. Other big retailers, including L.L. Bean, they say, too, will make do with less holiday help.

Taken together, thousands of individual decisions being made this fall by Maine business owners threaten to push up the state’s unemployment rate, perhaps significantly.

Maine’s work force has been hit with some notable closures in recent weeks – at Katahdin Paper in Millinocket and GE Healthcare in Sanford, for instance, where a total of 400 or so workers lost jobs. But overall, the state so far has escaped widescale layoffs.

Unemployment numbers

State labor offficials say it’s too early to know whether the rate of job loss, which is picking up nationally, will follow suit here.

“Is it the beginning of a trend in accelerated job loss or a one-month aberration?” said Glenn Mills, director of economic research at the state’s labor department. “It’s still unclear.”

Maine’s unemployment rate hit a low point last fall and had been bumping along in the 5 percent range until late spring. It hung at 5.5 percent in August, unchanged from July and better than the national level of 6.1 percent.

State figures for September won’t come out until Oct. 21. But with the frantic pace of actions and reactions in financial markets in recent weeks, these monthly snapshots may fail to capture the speed at which change is taking place.

Other indicators

Some related indicators don’t give reason for optimism.

• A key jobs report released early this month by the U.S. Department of Labor found a loss nationally of 159,000 non-farm jobs in September, the highest of any month in the past five years.

• In Maine, weekly unemployment claims hit 8,524 during the first week of October. That compares to 5,888 during the same period last year. Also rising is the rate at which people have exhausted their benefits after 26 weeks without a new job.

• A database of online help-wanted ads tracked by The Conference Board found a widening gap nationally and in Maine between the number of people out of work and available job postings. New online job postings in Maine fell from 12,000 to 10,900.

• Year-over-year traffic on the Maine Turnpike plummeted 15 percent in September, to levels last seen in 1999. Beyond tourism travel, it reflects a decline in the movement of goods and commerce linked to jobs.

The upcoming monthly unemployment figures, widely followed in the media, are seasonally adjusted. That removes the impact of events that occur at the same time each year. But in Maine, where many people work in tourism during the summer, seasonal jobs before Christmas are a critical source of income. If merchants cut back on hiring, experts say, the impact will be larger than the statistics suggest.

“Even if seasonally-adjusted numbers don’t show a big hit, it will be a big blow for people who rely on these jobs,” said Charles Colgan, an economic forecaster and University of Maine professor. “It’s going to disrupt people’s regular lives.”

Colgan, who is collecting figures for the economic forecasting group that advises state budget writers, said nearly all indicators seem to be negative. The turnpike numbers are a case in point. Oil prices have fallen 25 percent since their peak in July, which should boost traffic. Instead, tourist travel, deliveries and goods being trucked in and out of state appear to be falling off.

“It’s a pretty good indicator of the Maine economy,” he said.

Retail activity also is a good indicator, because so much of the economy is tied to consumer spending. The number of retail jobs peaked last November. In August, on a seasonally adjusted basis, there were roughly 87,500 retail jobs in Maine.

Maine had a net loss of 2,000 nonfarm jobs in the year ending in August. Since December, according to the labor department, Maine has lost 3,600 nonfarm jobs. Retail has accounted for 1,000 of them, a large share.

Anticipating sales

Stores count on the fourth quarter for up to 30 percent of revenues. This is a make-or-break time of year for many merchants. Beyond inventory control, staffing is a critical part of the equation.

Kittery Trading Post has 400 or so year-round workers. Sales staff earn between $10 and $11 an hour. Keim brought on roughly 70 seasonal workers last fall, roughly twice what he’ll hire this year.

Once the presidential election is over, Keim said, lower gasoline prices and some stability in financial markets might help calm the fears that are persuading shoppers to hold tight to their wallets.

“We hope to see some rebound as we get closer to Christmas,” he said.

Tough fourth quarter

L.L. Bean is one of the state’s largest employers, with 4,000 year-round workers in Maine. It relies heavily on seasonal help to fill holiday orders, hiring 7,000 workers last fall. These season, it’s bringing on 5,400 – a 23 percent reduction.

Bean began trimming inventory last spring in anticipation of a slowdown. Less hiring reflects that outlook for diminished holiday business.

“We fully expect a tough fourth quarter, as well as going into the spring,” said Carolyn Beem, a company spokeswoman.

Besides retail, construction is a key job sector characterized by high wages. Since December, it has shed 1,500 jobs. Uncertainty over credit and whether the government will be able to sell bonds for public projects has the industry on edge, according to John O’Dea, a spokesman for the Associated General Contractors of Maine.

“There’s a palpable sense of caution that’s been injected in the construction industry over the past few weeks,” he said.

Construction slowdown

O’Dea, whose group represents many large contractors, said he’s not aware of a privately-funded project killed for lack of credit. But a slowdown in state highway work has some sand-and-gravel and paving contractors cutting hours or letting workers go earlier this fall. Another ominous sign for construction jobs is the hazy outlook for future projects.

“That’s a concern,” O’Dea said. “Some contractors aren’t seeing a lot of work coming up.”

One bright spot in construction is continued vitality in health care, business services and private education.

John Leavitt, business manager for the New England Regional Council of Carpenters, said his members have survived the housing bust by working on hospitals and expansions on college campuses. The local has 700 members in Maine, who earn average annual salaries of $40,000.

“Hopefully,” Leavitt said, “we’ll ride through the drought on this.”