LOUISVILLE, Ky. (AP) – Trying to figure out how 20 unpredictable 3-year-old colts will fare in the Kentucky Derby is tough enough. Throw in the fact that some will be racing on dirt for the first time while others are coming off synthetic surfaces makes it a handicapping nightmare.

“I’m just glad I’m not a gambler,” said trainer Jeff Mullins, who will saddle I Want Revenge on Saturday. “I had a hard time when it was just conventional dirt.”

Questions abound every spring about the newest crop of 3-year-olds. Can they handle running 1 miles? How will they fare in the calvary charge to the first turn? Will they contend with what’s likely to be the largest and most talented field they’ll ever run against?

The introduction of synthetic tracks in California and at Keeneland in Lexington three years ago turned handicapping the Kentucky Derby into an even bigger guessing game. This year’s group of contenders prepped on a variety of surfaces, and even in California, the composition of synthetic tracks at Santa Anita and Hollywood Park varies.

Churchill Downs oddsmaker Mike Battaglia will set the Derby morning line at Wednesday’s post position draw, giving bettors yet another opinion in a sport that thrives on debate.

Just a few years ago, handicappers and fans had their hands full comparing pedigrees and past performances of horses who came to the Derby after prepping at tracks from coast to coast.

“Now you throw synthetics into it, it’s a mishmash,” said David Lanzman, co-owner of I Want Revenge. “I know a lot of handicappers that try to throw out the form completely and they just handicap over what they see here the week or 10 days coming in. What I’ve seen from my horse, I’m willing to do that.”

I Want Revenge was 1-of-6 on synthetic surfaces in California. Then Lanzman and Mullins sent the colt to New York’s Aqueduct, where he won the Gotham Stakes by 8 lengths and rallied to win the Wood Memorial after a terrible start. Both of those races were on dirt.

The surface switch seemingly changed the colt’s running style.

“On synthetic, he holds his head really low and his knees come real high, but on dirt he holds his head straight out and throws his feet straight out and is more fluid,” Mullins said.

Another California horse, Pioneerof the Nile, will be racing on dirt for the first time Saturday. His first two career races were on the turf, then he switched to synthetics, and has gone 4-for-6 on the artificial stuff, including four consecutive victories since coming to Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert’s barn late last year.

“They’re all different, there’s not one synthetic that’s the same,” Baffert said. “Horses can slip a little bit, they can stick. Some horses like it, some horses don’t like it.”

Santa Anita Derby winner Pioneerof the Nile beat I Want Revenge twice on synthetic.

“I’ll be scared of him until we at least beat him once,” Lanzman said, “but we’ve done it (run on dirt) and he hasn’t. That’s our advantage over him.”

Also trying dirt for the first time will be Santa Anita Derby runner-up Chocolate Candy and third-place Mr. Hot Stuff. Last year’s dirt rookies in the Derby finished no better than sixth.

Just how well horses making the transition from synthetic adjust to having dirt kicked back in their faces is another question. During training, horses are timed running alone or with one other horse beside them, so kickback is not an issue.

Baffert is among those who believe conventional dirt will always be the best racing surface. He thinks the artificial mixture of fiber, rubber and sand is better suited for training.

“I don’t think they’ve got the right one yet,” Baffert said, referring to synthetic surfaces marketed under such names as Polytrack, Cushion Track and Pro-Ride.

Mullins agreed, saying, “I hope there’s not very much future in it.”

Both trainers are based in California, so they’ve been forced to adapt to synthetic, which was introduced and pitched as being safer for riders and animals and easier to maintain.

“The jury is still out,” Zito said. “You need more data. Some groups have now said you see all these injuries in the hind (legs) and the soft tissue. There’s plenty of evidence in that. Conventional dirt is good for horses.”

Blue Grass winner General Quarters is one of the handful of Derby contenders who’s won on dirt and synthetic.

Hold Me Back, runner-up in the Blue Grass, earned his three career victories on synthetic. The only time he finished out of the money – beaten by 14 lengths – came on dirt at Aqueduct.

“We’re not about to say our horse can’t run on the dirt just off one race,” trainer Bill Mott said. “We’re going to give him the chance on Saturday and then we’ll see.”

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