The lame-duck session of Congress is expected to vote on a new nuclear treaty that would further reduce weapon stockpiles in the United States and Russia and ensure compliance inspections.

However, despite almost unilateral support for the treaty’s 1991 predecessor, the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, it’s unclear whether Maine’s two Republican senators will support the measure this session or join party ranks to delay the vote until next year.

President Barack Obama has urged Congress to ratify the treaty this year. However, most congressional Republicans have expressed reluctance to take up a vote until 2011, when the GOP will gain control of the U.S. House of Representatives.

Although Democrats have enough votes to advance the New START treaty in the House this session, they may not have enough Republican votes to get the required two-thirds majority in the Senate.

Enter U.S. Sens. Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins, two Republicans that Obama and Democrats have sometimes been able to convince to cross the aisle. Their support could be key to a START ratification after Thanksgiving.

But, in separate statements this week, the senators appear to be hedging on supporting START this session.

Collins said she had concerns about the existing proposal. She said any commitment to reduce U.S. nuclear stockpiles must be parallel to a commitment to modernize and ensure the safety of a smaller arsenal. 

“In addition, many arms control experts have identified tactical nuclear weapons — not strategic nuclear weapons — as the type of weapon which is most vulnerable to theft by terrorists,” she said. “Given that Russia’s estimated stockpile of tactical nuclear weapons is more than 10 times the size of the U.S. stockpile, if the New START treaty is ratified, it must lead to a commitment for future reduction in the number of these weapons in the future.”

Collins said she would reserve judgment on the treaty until it came up for a floor vote. However, that vote won’t likely happen this year unless the current Democratic majority believes it has enough support to pass the legislation.

Snowe said she wanted to address concerns about whether the inspection verification rules in the proposal were sufficient to track Russian compliance.

She echoed concerns that START could compromise the United States’ ability to develop a missile defense system.

“… There has been speculation that during negotiations on the treaty, U.S. officials may have made a tacit commitment to the Russians not to develop strategic missile defense, and I intend to continue to review all available information on this question until the Senate schedules a vote on the treaty,” she said.

Despite those concerns, Democrats and a coalition of former defense secretaries are urging Republicans to ratify START this session because of fears that the legislation will be weakened next year.

Indiana Sen. Richard Lugar, the ranking Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and the only Republican to publicly support START, this week rebuked his GOP colleagues for hedging on a vote.

“At the moment, the Republican Caucus is tied up in a situation where people don’t want to make choices,” said Lugar, according to a report in Politico. “No one wants to be counted. No one wants to talk about it.”

Lugar said the GOP leadership is unwilling to insert current Republican senators in the debate before Republicans gain more power next session.

“Every senator has an obligation in the national security interest to take a stand, to do his or her duty,” Lugar said. “Maybe people would prefer not to do his or her duty right now. Sometimes when you prefer not to vote, you attempt to find reasons not to vote.”

START ratification is also important to Obama, who has shifted his agenda toward foreign policy after devastating mid-term losses.

In 1991, the original START treaty passed the Senate, 93-6. According to voting records, eight sitting Republican senators voted for the legislation before it was signed by President George H.W. Bush.

smistler@sunjournal.com

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