In the scientific field of game theory, there’s a classic problem called the “Prisoner’s Dilemma.” The problem involves two suspects who police believe are guilty, but need a confession to convict either. Do the prisoners rat on each other, with both serving a moderate sentence? Do they hold out, meaning both could go free? Or does only one refuse to confess, suffering severe consequences?
Last week’s events make this game — which has no solution, hence the dilemma — highly relevant to the pickle Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe find themselves in. It concerns repeal of Congress’ notorious “Don’t ask, don’t tell” law authorizing discrimination in the military against gay and lesbians. Let’s call it the Senator’s Dilemma.”
DADT, as it’s known to advocates, was an awkward compromise from the first. Bill Clinton became president in 1993 while promising to end discrimination against gays. He probably hoped to do so by executive order, as Harry Truman did in abolishing racial discrimination by the military in 1948, six years before the U.S. Supreme Court’s more famous Brown v. Board of Education decision outlawing school desegregation.
Clinton was well ahead of his time, however, and was blocked by a skittish Congress and opposition from then-Joint Chiefs Chairman Colin Powell. He decided to compromise with a form of institutionalized hypocrisy – gays can serve their country as long as they don’t tell anyone about their sexual orientation. The policy hasn’t worked, and gay and lesbian soldiers and sailors continue to be dishonorably discharged.
DADT looks increasingly dated, however. Attitudes toward homosexuality are one of the few issues on which the country has moved markedly left. A half dozen states allow same-sex couples to marry, most of them bar discrimination in others areas of public life — and nearly three-quarters of Americans tell pollsters it’s time to repeal DADT.
But in the Senate, particularly one that’s dominated by a hard-line Republican minority, nothing is ever that simple. There’s little question that, in an up-or-down vote without extraneous pressure, both Maine senators would vote for repeal. But exploiting fears about minorities is now such a common vote-getter — immigrants and the poor are current targets — that a GOP senator crosses this line at her peril.
Thus the curious positioning of Collins and Snowe. Collins has pledged to overturn the ban, and now has sufficient Republican votes, including that of Lisa Murkowski of Alaska. Murkowski was just re-elected by write-in after losing the Republican primary to a tea party favorite, the first senator to do so since Strom Thurmond, the arch-segregationist. That’s an irony worth savoring.
So Collins huddled with Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.), a Democrat who saved his own seat by becoming an independent in 2006, and came up with a plan for the defense authorization bill. That was the vehicle chosen by Democrats to repeal DADT — appropriately, since the military is what we’re talking about.
But the Collins-Lieberman strategy involved debating 15 amendments – 10 from Republicans — which Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (R-Nev.) naturally rejected, since it would have taken up most of the remaining lame duck session. In a snap vote doomed to fail, Collins was in favor and Snowe opposed, though she said Wednesday she would vote for a stand-alone bill.
The House debated its own version, passed 250-175, that could force the Senate to postpone adjournment, much to the displeasure of senators hoping to vote for mammoth tax cuts and then go home. It might still work. But why not just take the vote when it was scheduled?
That’s the Senator’s Dilemma. Collins and Snowe know that their constituents support repeal, but they fear backlash in the GOP Senate bloc. So Collins engages in complicated parliamentary moves and Snowe is silent.
Collins was just re-elected, while Snowe would face the voters again in 2012. Tea party enthusiasts are describing Snowe as their top target.
From the Maine perspective, it’s difficult to take seriously. Snowe has been elected senator three times, with her initial margin of 60 percent rising to 74 percent by 2006. Only George Mitchell ever did better. But no politician can afford to ignore a primary challenge.
We saw the pressure at work earlier, when Snowe voted against health care reform on the floor after earlier supporting an almost identical bill in committee.
How unhinged the debate has become over a simple, overdue act of justice is clear when one listens to Sen. John McCain, (R-Ariz.)  the one-time maverick Republican, berating the joint chiefs of staff for testifying that repeal of DADT wouldn’t disrupt their units.
Will Maine’s senators finally be able to do the right thing? Perhaps, but the Senator’s Dilemma will remain.

Douglas Rooks is a former daily and weekly newspaper editor who has covered the State House for 25 years. He can be reached at [email protected].