It’s been a long time since one single team bore the weight of being such an overwhelming favorite as the Saint John Sea Dogs bear this season.
But that pressure is hardly misplaced.
Saint John tore through the Quebec Major Junior Hockey League this season, losing only seven games in regulation and racking up 58 wins, tied for the most in league history. Perhaps more impressive: The team did not suffer a single loss at home in regulation.
The Sea Dogs did all of this while scoring a league-high 324 goals and allowing a league-low 165, and they did it with firepower. Six current Saint John players are NHL-drafted. Two others have received invitations to NHL camps, and six more are ranked among the top 60 North American skaters for the upcoming NHL draft, including four in the top 25. This year’s regular-season championship is the team’s second consecutive such title, and there are very few players on the roster who are slated to be missing next season.
But, as is always the case with playoffs of any kind, and particularly in hockey, there are several other teams who hope to derail the favorite and put their own mark on the playoffs. Other teams have displayed the ability to defeat the Sea Dogs on occasion — seven occasions, to be exact — with one of those teams being the Lewiston Maineiacs.
Other teams to defeat Saint John this season include Montreal, Drummondville (twice), Cape Breton, Acadie-Bathurst and PEI. But only four of those regulation losses have come since Christmas.
Montreal and Quebec are among a host of teams that still believe in the chance to upend the Sea Dogs this season, given the chance. But, as in any playoff season, to get the chance to reach the top, you have to get through the bottom and the middle first.
Here is a breakdown of the rest of the QMJHL playoffs, by series, with a predicted winner for each series:
No. 1 Saint John vs. No. 16 Cape Breton
It’s very hard to see Cape Breton with a snowball’s chance in Hades of winning even one game. The disparity between the clubs is about as great as the divide was between Drummondville and Lewiston in each of the past two seasons, and particularly in 2009. The Dogs are loaded with top-end talent, they have drafted players and potentially-drafted players oozing from their benches and playing fourth-line roles, in some cases. The Screaming Eagles have reached the playoffs with the lowest point total in a very long time, they have absolutely no 19-year-old skaters and just a pair of 20-year-old veterans. The biggest thing the Eagles can hope to glean from this year’s playoff experience is, well, experience.
Sea Dogs in 4.
No. 2 Montreal vs. No. 15 Halifax
The Montreal Junior were the top-heavy favorite among most league prognosticators to begin the season. After a small swoon midseason, the Junior have done little to dissuade anyone from that pick. There are a few injury questions as the playoffs begin for the Junior, but their depth — they have 13 19-year-old players — will not have a hard time shining. The Mooseheads appear finally to be on the right track to redemption after a couple of very down seasons. There is a good, young core group of players on this team, and the mark of this squad is constant hard work. But working hard against Montreal will be like trying to push a freight train off a track with your bare hands. Halifax can bank this experience for its brightened future.
Junior in 4.
No. 3 Quebec vs. No. 14 Val d’Or
The Remparts always seem to be at the height of conversation in the QMJHL, and there is one big reason: Head coach, GM and owner Patrick Roy. Never a fan of losing, Roy continues to assemble contending teams via trades, solid European selections and through the draft and free agency. This year’s squad is again near the top of the league in almost every statistical category, even though Roy insisted prior to the season his team was good enough for perhaps sixth overall in the league. Val d’Or, meanwhile, had high hopes for this season, but were hit early, hard and often by injuries. Then, at the deadline, seeing the lost season, they partially sold. There is still talent on the Foreurs’ roster, and the possibility exists that they may be able to steal a game, depending on goaltending. But Quebec is far too strong, and too well-coached, to fall in this one.
Remparts in 5.
No. 4 Drummondville vs. No. 13 Chicoutimi
In recent years, no organization has had the level of success the Voltigeurs have enjoyed. Saint John is knocking on that door, but for now, Drummondville is the standard. And against most odds, the Volts continue to dominate in a cyclical league, leading to a coach-of-the-year nomination for Mario Duhamel. The Volts have the best overall player in the QMJHL in Sean Couturier, one of the top power play setups and executions, and have received surprisingly strong goaltending all season. The Volts even flirted with taking the division crown from Montreal late in the season, and are a playoff-tested team. And then there is Chicoutimi. Despite a lower-than-expected final standing, and a mid-season coaching change, the Sags have one of the best goaltenders in all of Canada in Christopher Gibson, and that alone will help against a potent Drummondville attack. But it probably will not be enough.
Voltigeurs in 5.
No. 5 Gatineau vs. No. 12 Rimouski
This is an intriguing matchup. Gatineau was struggling early, and left for dead by many — until a patented late-season surge to which so many across the QMJHL have become accustomed vaulted the Olympiques back into the contending mix. The team has been getting tremendous goaltending, they added the league’s top scorer at the trade deadline and all of a sudden they remind people of the Gatineau teams of yester-year. Rimouski, meanwhile, began the season with heightened expectations and, on paper, that team (minus one defenseman) is intact. But the Oceanic struggled to play as a unit. They struggled to form offense and stay out of the box, and they struggled to keep the puck out of the net, much to the frustration of coach Clem Jodoin. If, and that is a gigantic ‘if,’ but if the team can somehow find some magic for the playoff run, and channel that talent that led many people to pick the team to win the division, this series could get very interesting.
Olympiques in 5.
No. 6 Acadie-Bathurst vs. No. 11 Victoriaville
Speaking of heightened expectations, the Titan tried to make the big splash last year at the draft, and they acquired all-world goalie Olivier Roy from Cape Breton via Lewiston. They tried to build a contending team to make a big run and help at a struggling box office. And while the team has done well this season — and finished second behind Saint John in their division — Acadie-Bathurst is nowhere near as strong this season as many had hoped it would be. That said, there is a lot of talent on this team. Victoriaville, meanwhile, lost its final three games of the season to fall from ninth to 11th and draw the Titan. The Tigres still have dynamic offensive production from their top line, and a good keeper in David Honzik. But depth will cause some problems here.
Titan in 6.
No. 7 Shawinigan vs. No. 10 PEI
This is a tale of two franchises that have historically struggled in the postseason. Shawinigan has had more recent success, but remains the only original franchise in the QMJHL without a league title. PEI has one playoff series win to its credit since the franchise was formed in Montreal in 1999. Something will have to give, and the story lines get even better when you add in the much-hyped trade that sent Ben Casavant to Shawinigan and Philippe Paradis to PEI. The Cats have been statistically better all season, and have a solid keeper in Gabriel Girard, in addition to one of the top puck-moving defensemen in the league in Ryan Kavanagh. PEI has shown signs it can turn on the jets when it needs to, and if Evan Mosher can provide what the team needs between the pipes, there is potential for an upset here. The 2-3-2 series format also works in PEI’s favor, if the Rocket can pull out a win on the road in the first part of the series.
Rocket in 6.
No. 8 Lewiston vs. No. 9 Moncton
Hardly an upset no matter which team wins, the storylines in this matchup abound. Lewiston president Bill Schurman worked for seven years in the Moncton organization. Lewiston forwards Matthew Bissonnette and Kirill Kabanov once played for the Wildcats. Athletic trainer Brian Morrison once worked for the team, as well, and Moncton was the team that knocked Nick Champion’s Rouyn-Noranda Huskies from the playoffs a year ago. Oh, right, and then there’s the team history. During the ‘Cats’ 2006 championship season, Lewiston was the constant thorn in their side. In 2007, Moncton returned the favor as Lewiston ran to the Cup. This season, the teams split a pair of close ones. The Moncton power play is formidable. Its goaltending? Unproven. Lewiston will need to exploit that last piece if it hopes to advance.
Maineiacs in 6.
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