When you get the basketball tournament, you never know what’s going to happen.

That’s what just about every coach preaches to their teams each winter. That unpredictability gives hope to all and provides the tourney with the sense of drama few other events can create.

Where else can a last-second heave from beyond the arc win you a regional title like Forest Hills did last year? Who would have guessed that second-seeded Lawrence, a preseason and pre-tourney favorite, would be stunned by Messalonskee in the first round? How about a team like Carrabec, which hadn’t won a quarterfinal in more than a decade, going on to win the state title.

You just never know what’s going to happen, and you can almost guarantee that moment that you never saw coming or that play that absolutely wows you.

What happened last year is now the past. There’s a new tournament ahead with great drama and possibilities to follow. 

Eastern A

Bangor and Lawrence have battled for the top-seed all year. They’ve even traded wins, splitting the regular season.

It isn’t just a two-team race. Oxford Hills is the defending regional champion and has much of that team back. The Vikings are peaking at the right time and have proven they can play with both Bangor and Lawrence.

Don’t count out Edward Little or Mt. Blue. The Red Eddies are a deep and experienced team that reached the regional final last year. They’ve played both Lawrence and Bangor tough. The Cougars are relatively young but have progressed greatly this season. They could put a scare into a few teams, much like they did a year ago when they almost toppled top-ranked Edward Little.

The hunch is that Bangor and Lawrence will meet in the regional final. Although, I wouldn’t want to play Oxford Hills in the semifinal. They’ll be a tough out, for sure.

The Rams and Bulldogs have appeared to be a step ahead, and a few inches taller, than most other teams this year and destined to meet each other in the rubber match. I’ve gone back and forth on choosing a winner.

Bangor’s depth in the paint and a defense that was second-best in the KVAC makes them a strong candidate. Lawrence, however, has two of the best players in the field in Irving and Lewis. They’ve also got some depth and have some experience. They’re the top offensive club and pretty good at the other end as well. Add in the shooting touch from Lewis and some stellar free throw shooting, that will all make the Bulldogs tough to beat. 

But I just think that after losing to Messalonskee last year and losing to Bangor late in the regular season, the Bulldogs will be more determined than ever. That just might be the edge that’s needed.

Prediction: Lawrence

Western B

The tourney may just come down to one thing — Ashley Storey.

Greely has her. The other teams have nobody like her. That gives the Rangers a huge advantage. Greely is also playing very well and has some guard play that can deliver. I think Greely just might be playing the best basketball in the field.

Many are dismissing Spruce Mountain already. They’re seen as the same team with the same bloated record from a weaker conference. Playing in the KVAC may have been better for the Phoenix.

We’ll see about that.

Spruce Mountain has most everybody back from last year and are that much more experienced. Whether that closes the gap between them and Western Maine Conference teams is uncertain. That may not be determined until the Phoenix meet York in the semifinals, a likely scenario.

You can’t count out Gray-New Gloucester — what a season they’ve had. They’re certainly a threat, but will have to go through Greely. The Patriots have lost some size to injury, which will hinder their cause. 

I think Greely will prove too much for teams in this field. Whether it be Spruce Mountain or York in the regional final, neither team has a real answer for Storey or the rest of the Rangers.

Prediction: Greely

Western C

I miss those years when this was an easy pick. I thought picking a winner in Western C was hard last year. I’ve had many conversations about this being a field where anybody could win. The last two teams to get in, by preliminary wins, were Madison and Carrabec. They were the two finalists last year.

Maranacook has a fine team and a great player in Miller. I think they’ll likely get to the finals. Boothbay has proven itself earning the second spot and only losing once. They’ll be tough to beat and a challenge for other teams. Boothbay had Dirigo’s number this year in two meetings, but the Cougars are getting better every day. A semifinal between those two could be a toss-up. Dirigo knocked off the top seed last year. So I wouldn’t put it past the Cougars to make a greater run this year.

In the end, Maranacook has a year in Western C behind them. They’ve played a tougher schedule in the KVAC and have been playing well, coming off a win over unbeaten Spruce Mountain in the conference championship game. Miller is a force most teams will struggle to match. The Black Bears also have a solid cast around her and a stellar defense.  I think Maranacook’s overall talent, seasoning and experience wins out against mostly MVC teams.

Prediction: Maranacook

Western D

Nobody has come close to touching Rangeley this season. Forest Hills and Hyde hung close for a bit. Richmond lost by the least — 17 points. In a year where much of the EWC is down, the Lakers are heads above the other teams. They have size, great guards, experience and a whole lot of motivation. Nobody has gotten in their way so far this year. Unless the Lakers beat themselves some how, I don’t see how anybody beats Rangeley here.

The defending champs from Forest Hills could give the Lakers a battle in a semifinal matchup. Pine Tree could make for an interesting test. The Breakers haven’t played the Lakers but beat some good EWC teams. But the teams Pine Tree beat haven’t been the same caliber as Rangeley. 

Prediction: Rangeley

Copy the Story Link