When it comes to predicting how well the Patriots will do this season, the conversation inevitably turns to quarterback play.

Even with a great defense and a greater stash of offensive weapons, it still comes back to the quarterbacks and how they perform.

If the Patriots get the same level of play as last year – Cam Newton was 30th in the league in QBR – they aren’t likely to do much better than the 7-9 record they put up last season, even with an improved cast.

So here’s the burning question: How much better does their quarterback play have to be to earn a playoff berth, and possibly more?

Through two weeks of training camp and one preseason game, Newton has certainly looked better than the 2020 version. While he still occasionally heaves up a cringe-worthy pass, it’s important to point out he hasn’t allowed Mac Jones to completely close the gap. At this point, he’s played well enough to keep the kid at a distance, although there’s still time for the roles to reverse.

That being said, does Newton have to improve to the point of being a top-five quarterback in the league for the Patriots to be a playoff team? Does top 10 work? Or can the Patriots still make a splash with Newton in the top 15 or top 20?

And if Jones winds up running the show, or jumps in halfway for whatever reason, does the rookie have to land somewhere in the top 20 for the Patriots to make some noise?

First, a look at some of the statistics.

Looking at last year’s Total QBR list, nine of the top 10 quarterbacks led playoff teams. Miami’s Ryan Fitzpatrick was the only outlier, but he didn’t play the full season. With Fitzpatrick and Tua Tagovailoa, who took over Week 8, the Dolphins didn’t make the playoffs but finished ahead of the Patriots in the AFC East with a 10-6 record.

None of the quarterbacks from 11-15 (Derek Carr, DeShaun Watson, Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray, Matthew Stafford) had a sniff of making the postseason.

As for 16-20, only one from that group, Phillip Rivers of the Colts, got his team into the playoffs.

So for the quarterbacks, connecting the dots was pretty simple. Finish in the top 10, and a playoff berth is fairly automatic.

Does that mean those statistics are the be-all and end-all? Not necessarily, but it’s a good barometer for how well Newton needs to play if he’s the starter. Ditto Jones.

Plenty of teams with top-10 defenses (Steelers, Giants, Patriots) and less than stellar quarterback play didn’t make it to the playoffs.

Then there’s Tom Brady. He had a top-10 defense to go along with a stacked offense in Tampa Bay en route to winning the Super Bowl.

Bottom line: Average quarterback play doesn’t cut it in an offense-driven league. So the Patriots quarterback, no matter who it is, has to up his game.

“They had an average quarterback last year. So, if you’re really, really good, and you have an average quarterback, you might go 9-7, but a lot of that is because of Bill (Belichick) and his coaching ability,” NBC analyst and former Patriot Rodney Harrison told the Herald on Friday. “But to answer the question, no, the Patriots can’t get away with having average quarterback play. It has to be above average this year.”

The Patriots will run the football, and take advantage of their power run game behind a stellar offensive line. We saw some of that Thursday night in the preseason opener against the Washington Football Team. But they’re also going to have to throw the football to succeed.

Teams will eventually flood the box, stop the run, and force the Patriots to throw.

“It’s about producing explosive plays in the offense, that’s where it’s at,” said Sirius XM NFL analyst and Pro Football Focus contributor Solomon Wilcots. “Cam didn’t have explosive plays … what was it, eight touchdown passes last season? So they’ll need more explosive plays, meaning pass plays beyond 20 yards, and being productive inside the red zone.”

The Patriots also have to be good on third down. Again, that’s where the passing game comes into play even in short-yardage situations. Last season, with Newton at the helm, the Patriots converted just 40.8 percent of the time on third down, which was 17th in the league. That statistic has to improve.

During Thursday night’s game, the quarterback contingent (Newton, Jones and Brian Hoyer) went 4 for 12 (33.3%) on third down.

Harrison specifically pointed to the quarterback play on other teams being one of the biggest reasons the Patriots can’t settle for less. When they had Brady, they always had the edge. Now, not so much.

“If you think about Buffalo, they have one of the top five or six quarterbacks in the league with Josh Allen, an outstanding offense with a bunch of different weapons, and a top-10 defense,” said Harrison. “And if you’re the Patriots, do you think you can beat this team with average quarterback play? It’s not going to happen.”

Asked if Newton or Jones were capable of being “above average” and at least being competitive with the rest, Harrison believed that given the improved weapons Newton now has at his disposal, there was a decent shot of that happening.

As for Jones, while Harrison was impressed by what he saw of the rookie against Washington, it’s still unknown what Jones’ ceiling might be if he gets to play.

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