Gov. Janet Mills will deliver a State of the State address Thursday with political stakes heightened by an impending budget debate and re-election campaign.

The high-profile speech – her first before a joint session since the pandemic began – comes as Mainers grow weary of pandemic restrictions and as Mills and her fellow Democrats seek to retain control of the Blaine House and both chambers of the Legislature in November’s elections. The speech is scheduled to start at 7 p.m. in the House chamber.

A Mills spokesperson said the governor will focus on her first-term successes, including “historic investments” in her Maine Jobs and Recovery Plan without raising taxes, bringing the state’s rainy day fund to record levels and overseeing a projected budget surplus of more than $822 million. She’ll also highlight her plans to work with the Legislature and use the surplus to provide relief to Mainers, invest in the workforce and strengthen the economy, her staff said.

“The governor will reflect on Maine’s success in confronting the pandemic, outline the progress the state has made despite it, and recognize the hardship that still exists because of it,” spokesperson Lindsay Crete said in an email. “She will applaud the progress we have made in advancing the recovery of Maine’s economy, and note that much work remains to be done, particularly when it comes to tackling the impact of inflation on Maine people and bolstering our workforce.”

House and Senate Republican leaders declined through spokespeople to discuss the upcoming address on Wednesday because they had not yet seen her supplemental budget proposal or an advanced copy of her remarks.

Mills will deliver her State of the State address in-person before members of the House and the Senate. The Democratic controlled Legislature has limited in-person deliberations and continues to hold committee meetings remotely because of the pandemic, while Republicans have been urging a return to in-person committee meetings with the option of participating via video.

Political observers said they will be watching closely how Mills talks about the pandemic and whether she will encourage Mainers to begin accepting COVID-19 as an endemic disease or announce any changes to masking recommendations for schools.

Mills is expected to release details of her supplemental budget, which will include her plans for how to allocate a projected surplus of $822 million through mid-2023. The governor has expressed interest in returning some of that money to taxpayers struggling to pay higher costs for necessities like gasoline, home heating fuel and groceries, but has yet to release details.

Republicans have been calling on Mills and Democrats to lower income taxes, a request unlikely to gain traction as Mills has expressed caution that the surplus could be fleeting.

LOOKING TOWARD NOVEMBER

The address will likely be viewed by political observers as an unofficial kickoff for Mills’ re-election campaign, which is expected to end in a head-to-head race with Republican front-runner Paul LePage, a former governor who is seeking a third nonconsecutive term.

“We’re all looking for signs of what the matchup between her and LePage will look like and she’s sitting on a real opportunity to frame the debate,” said Nick Jacobs, an assistant professor of government at Colby College. “I would be surprised if we did not see her use this to sketch out what a post-pandemic administration will look like.”

House Speaker Ryan Fecteau, however, warned that injecting too much campaign politics into the speech could upend and overshadow Mills’ bipartisan accomplishments in areas like investing in child care, affordable housing and her recently unveiled bipartisan bill to reform child protective services.

Fecteau said Mills has made it clear that she wants as much bipartisan support as possible on bills, even though Democrats control the Blaine House and both chambers of the Legislature.

“It’s great to have a Democratic trifecta, but it’s important that we find a way to get our work done in a bipartisan manner, and we have tried our best to do that over the last four years,” said Fecteau, who had not seen the governor’s speech.

Senate President Troy Jackson agreed, saying he hopes the governor will talk about improving the economy and lives of all Mainers, especially in rural parts of the state. Issues he’d like to see addressed are energy costs, prescription drugs, property tax relief, child care and broadband internet.

Jackson said the politicking can wait until after the Legislative session. And he hopes Mills will continue work in a bipartisan manner.

“It’s an election year, so that’s always the danger of people wanting to say ‘to hell with policy’ and work towards partisanship,” Jackson said. “But we shouldn’t fall into that trap. These issues are too damn important to the people of the state of Maine. We should do what we can to move the state forward and then worry about the election after we leave the building.”

PANDEMIC FATIGUE

The pandemic has dominated public policy and attention for the better part of the last three years. Maine has fared better than most states. Early lockdowns and mask requirements appeared to help keep the virus at bay early in the pandemic. And the state has been a national leader in getting people vaccinated. That has been especially true in population centers like Portland, while more of a struggle in more rural locations.

But now, with the omicron surge steadily subsiding, even some Democratic governors are beginning to lift mask mandates. New York and Illinois announced Wednesday the lifting of public mask mandates, though New York is keeping its mandate in schools. And governors in New Jersey, Connecticut and Delaware have announced they plan to lift mask mandates in schools.

Maine has no statewide mandates in place, although the state has standing recommendations and guidelines regarding mask wearing and quarantines.

Mark Brewer, professor and interim chair of political science at the University of Maine, Orono, said that polling shows Americans are increasingly tired of pandemic restrictions, even as scientists debate when it’s safe to lift mandates. Either being too cautious, or being too aggressive, in speaking about pandemic restrictions or urging a return to normalcy carries its own set of risks, he said.

“I think the bigger risk for Mills is if she doesn’t signal that pivot,” Brewer said. “Public opinion polling shows that Americans are just done with COVID restrictions. They’re exhausted.”

The extent to which Mills may seek to smooth over dissent among progressive Democrats also will be closely watched.

Jim Melcher, a political science professor at the University of Maine, Farmington, said he will be watching to see how Mills reaches out to critics who could be swayed to support her, especially those who are upset at her support for the New England Clean Energy Connect corridor, which was overwhelmingly rejected by voters in November.

Both Mills and LePage supported the project. But Mills has made an effort to blunt criticism of her stand by proposing her own utility accountability bill, which threatens underperforming utility companies with steep financial penalties or even the potential of forcing the sale of assets to another company or a consumer-owned utility. It’s a centrist position, supported by at least two Republicans, that takes aim at  unpopular utility companies without backing a campaign to create a consumer-owned electric utility in Maine.

“Given (Central Maine Power’s) unpopularity and how that’s a touch point for some critics and people she could win over – that’s going to be one of the things to pay attention to – how she talks about energy in Maine,” he said.

TENSION WITH PROGRESSIVES

Melcher said he would also be watching to see whether she seeks to soothe tensions among more progressive Democrats over her resistance to support full tribal sovereignty, her measured approach to closing the Long Creek Youth Development Center and her veto of a bill that would have allowed farm workers to unionize.

Melcher wonders if Democrats can match the impassioned opposition of Republicans.

“There’s an anger amongst some people on (the Republican) side against her and I think Paul LePage is going to be able to tap into that,” he said. “Will she be able to match the passion on her side of the aisle as someone like Paul LePage who has been able to tap into the populous sentiment?”

Even talking about the economy carries some risks, Jacobs said.

Although inflation and economic issues usually affect presidential races, Democrats and President Biden are facing headwinds going into the midterm elections, when the party in power usually loses seats. Talking about the economy could provide an opening for local Republicans to tie Mills to Democrats nationally and try to pin inflation on her, he said.

“She wants to talk about economic performance, but any time you bring up the economy right now, you’re going to run the risk of bringing inflation into the discussion and that’s certainly not something a current office holder wants to discuss,” he said. “It doesn’t get hung around governors’ necks as it gets hung around presidents’ necks, but I’m sure that at various points during this campaign Paul LePage and his supporters are going to try and place some of the blame for the inflation that Americans and Mainers see every day when they go to the grocery or when they get gas at the feet of Governor Mills.”

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