The forthcoming coronation will be steeped in pomp and ceremony. But Britain must dispense with another tradition — bad weather on public holidays — for the event to jingle the tills of U.K. retailers and restaurants.

When King Charles III is crowned on May 6 in Westminster Abbey, there is a good chance it will lift the national mood as well as spending. The economic backdrop to the coronation is better than the one that accompanied the late Queen Elizabeth’s Platinum Jubilee celebrations a year ago.

Just a few months before the Jubilee, the war in Ukraine had sent oil — and petrol prices — soaring. Meanwhile, the prospect of sharply higher household energy and food bills was starting to weigh on consumer confidence.

In contrast, last week, GfK’s U.K. Consumer Confidence Index unexpectedly improved to minus 30 in April, its highest level since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The measure echoes findings from PwC’s Consumer Sentiment Index, which over the past 10 to 15 years has tended to predict spending around six months later. It recovered to minus 25 in March, from minus 44 in September.

The “sudden flowering of optimism,” as GfK put it, may reflect the fact that while we are still firmly in the grips of the cost-of-living crisis, which is undoubtedly causing pain for some lower-income households, the squeeze hasn’t been quite as bad as feared for many others. And the outlook from here may be a little brighter.

Consumers have learned to manage their energy bills by turning down temperatures or wearing extra layers indoors. With wholesale gas prices coming down, and the fact that we shouldn’t have to put the heating on as much over the coming months, some of the anxiety about how to keep warm may be abating.

Grocery costs also remain stubbornly high, but again there are some positive signs. Meat prices are rising, but supermarkets, led by Britain’s biggest, Tesco, have already cut the price of milk. This should feed through to other dairy products, such as cheese, while lower grain costs and any relief on energy should start to ease the price of baked goods.

Although manufacturers still face higher wage bills, in general, fewer price rises are likely in the second half of this year. For example, Unilever chief financial officer Graeme Pitkethly said on Thursday that increases from the Dove soap and Magnum ice-cream maker would start to taper off in the coming quarters. At the same time, special offers are poised to ramp up as the big consumer-goods groups try to boost sales. Thanks to the recovery in sterling and falling freight rates, the inflationary picture for clothing and furniture is more benign too.

And while the Bank of England may hike interest rates again in May — and even at the following meeting in June — we are probably at or close to the peak for borrowing costs.

House prices have not collapsed, employment — the main driver of consumer spending — remains strong, and many of those in work have been awarded a pay rise. All in all, some consumers at least may feel that they have come through the crisis relatively unscathed and be prepared to loosen their purse strings accordingly. And, of course, the prospect of three public holidays in May doesn’t hurt either.

Some of the outlay that is released into the economy will undoubtedly be funneled into travel. PwC found that Brits would cut back on almost everything before their vacations. But across the board, people expect to scrimp less over the coming months.

Already this is being reflected in spending ahead of the coronation. Marks & Spencer is seeing special tins of tea and biscuits to mark the occasion flying off the shelves, and the retailer expects to sell more than a million in total. Similarly, Wm Morrison Supermarkets is seeing brisk demand for celebratory products such as bunting and commemorative mugs. And pet owners are snapping up a T-shirt for dogs bearing a crown at J Sainsbury.

Brits are expected to stock up on scones, clotted cream and party food, as they did for the Platinum Jubilee. They spent £87 million ($108 million) more on groceries during the Jubilee week than on average in 2022, according to Kantar.

But it is a burst of good weather that would really get Brits heading to the shops or clicking to buy on their smartphones. If the sun shines, they could splurge on steaks for the barbecue despite higher prices. Alcohol is also likely to be a big seller for supermarkets. Sales were up by a third in the week of the Jubilee last year, compared with the average in 2022, according to Kantar.

Warm weather may also inspire the purchasing of new outfits. Last year, the Jubilee combined with weddings, parties and holidays prompted a wardrobe refresh. A rainy March, followed by a chilly April, means clothing chains are in need of a repeat.

And it won’t just be retailers that might benefit. Hospitality venues, including long-suffering pubs, might get a boost too, particularly as they will be able to stay open longer than usual. London hotel bookings for the coronation are surging, while the final of the Eurovision Song Contest in Liverpool a week later is having a similar effect there, according to data provider STR, part of CoStar Group.

According to SumUp, which provides payment services to small businesses, leisure and arts venues, including cinemas, theaters and swimming pools, saw the total value of transactions increase by a third over the Platinum Jubilee weekend compared with the weekend earlier. Bars and clubs enjoyed a 21% rise in takings.

Brits might toast King Charles with a glass of champagne or a beer at a barbecue. As some consumers hope that the worst dent to their finances in decades is easing, the glass will be at least half full.

Andrea Felsted is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering consumer goods and the retail industry. Previously, she was a reporter for the Financial Times.

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