Hurricane Lee has been a storm of unbridled power and unexpected caprice. It rapidly went from Category 1 to Category 5 intensity between Thursday and Friday, becoming the third most quickly intensifying storm ever observed in the Atlantic. Then it swiftly weakened on Friday night, collapsing in spectacular fashion.

Lee may strengthen again, however, and the National Hurricane Center warns the storm “is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through early next week.”

While the forecast for where Lee might end up is uncertain, the risk of a direct hit to the Canadian Maritimes around next weekend is increasing. There’s a slight risk that the Northeast U.S. or New England could face a close shave as Lee whirls just offshore.

Lee comes exactly one week before the historic peak of hurricane season in the Atlantic. By October, fewer storms form over the open Atlantic as stronger upper-level winds become more hostile to storm development. Instead, the threat shifts to “homegrown” tropical systems – those that form in the Gulf of Mexico or the Caribbean.

Leading into the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, experts predicted that record-warm ocean waters would tip the scales toward an anomalously active season. That’s been the case to date, and there’s no reason to expect the basin to simmer anytime soon.

WHERE IS HURRICANE LEE AND HOW STRONG IS IT?

As of Saturday morning, Lee was centered about 385 miles east-northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands and was moving west-northwest at 12 mph. Winds were estimated at 115 mph.

Lee continued to weaken some overnight, struggling against wind shear, or a disruptive change of wind speed and/or direction with height. That was working to knock the storm off-kilter. The shear was expected to persist for another 12 to 24 hours before a potential window for restrengthening opens on Sunday.

Overnight, Lee’s eye shriveled up and largely disappeared from satellite imagery, but Hurricane Hunter aircraft did find at least some semblance of an eyewall at Lee’s core.

“There were multiple reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft of mesovortices orbiting the closed, elliptical eyewall,” wrote the National Hurricane Center. “Due to safety considerations, the aircraft were unable, at times, to penetrate the eyewall and thus, we have no new . . . information about the intensity or minimum central pressure.”

Mesovortices are smaller whirls within the eye that can bring extremely erratic fluctuations in air pressure and wind speed/direction. They contort the eyewall too. That can be dangerous to aviation – hence why the Hurricane Hunters couldn’t investigate closer.

WHERE IS LEE FORECAST AFFECT?

Lee is going to continue drifting west-northwest until early next week. Then it will make a turn to the north, but where exactly it makes that turn remains to be seen.

The storm will be steered north in between two weather systems spinning in opposite directions. Over the open Atlantic, a blocking high-pressure “ridge” is spinning clockwise. Over the eastern United States, a counterclockwise-spinning “trough” of low pressure will be present. Lee should be shuttled in between and scooped north, but uncertainties in the projected strengths and positions of both steering systems mean we don’t know yet how close to the U.S. East Coast Lee will track.

If the track shifts east, Bermuda could be in play too for at least a fringing, or possibly more direct impact. That would be in the Wednesday to Thursday time frame of next week.

New England – especially eastern New England and Downeast Maine – should keep tabs on the system, particularly late next week into next weekend.

The most likely scenario still calls for a hit in the Canadian Maritimes. By then, Lee would probably be a nontropical storm but would be just as strong as a hurricane. With a broader wind field, significant surges would be possible, in addition to wind and flooding rains.

Regardless of where Lee heads, the eastern coastline of North America, as well as the Northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas, can expect rough surf and dangerous rip currents.

WHEN MIGHT HURRICANE LEE MAKE LANDFALL?

The majority of weather models keep Lee’s center offshore of the United States. Assuming landfall in the Canadian Maritimes does occur, it would be next weekend sometime.

HOW STRONG WILL LEE GET?

The National Hurricane Center’s forecast accounts for the short-term weakening of Lee observed via satellites and by the Hurricane Hunters. Lee is projected to remain a Category 3 on Saturday (though it may falter some and briefly become a higher-end Category 2), but the Hurricane Center is calling for Lee to morph back into a Category 4 with 140 mph winds into Monday.

Thereafter, only gradual weakening is expected as it begins its journey north.

HOW STRONG WILL LEE BE WHEN IT HITS LAND? 

When Lee passes Bermuda, it will probably be a Category 3 storm. Fortunately, it should remain largely offshore, sparing Bermuda any direct hurricane hit, though tropical storm conditions are possible.

By next weekend, the most likely scenario, though teeming with uncertainty, is for Lee to be a strong Category 1- or perhaps Category 2-equivalent storm as it approaches Maritime Canada. It’s not clear if it will be fully tropical, but it’s very probable that Lee’s winds will reach farther from the storm’s center. That could bring tropical storm conditions to a much wider swath of coastline.

WHAT HAS MADE LEE STAND OUT SO FAR?

Lee was the first Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic this season. Since 2016, there have been seven others. One of them, Michael, made a U.S. landfall at Category 5 strength on Oct. 10, 2018.

Lee also became the farthest southeast storm to achieve Category 5 status on record in the Atlantic.

Moreover, Lee’s rapid intensification – spiking from an 80 mph Category 1 to an extreme 160 mph Category 5 in 24 hours – made it the most quickly intensifying Atlantic storm on record outside the Caribbean, and the third most swiftly strengthening Atlantic storm on record overall. Rapid intensification, while common with major hurricanes, is made more likely by the effects of human-induced climate change.

ARE THERE ANY OTHER ATLANTIC STORMS TO WORRY ABOUT?

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, Tropical Storm Margot is present midway between the coasts of South America and Africa. It had 45 mph winds early Saturday but was strengthening. It will likely curve north-northwest and become a hurricane next week. By Thursday, it should be passing over the open ocean midway between Bermuda and the Azores.

HOW IS THE HURRICANE SEASON STACKING UP SO FAR?

Fourteen named storms have formed so far this season, including four hurricanes, three of which became major hurricanes. Activity perked up quickly in mid-August, with Franklin becoming a Category 4 over the open Atlantic and Idalia doing so over the Gulf of Mexico. Idalia eventually struck the Florida Big Bend as a high-end Category 2 or a low-end Category 3, then quickly weakened inland.

In terms of a number of systems, we’ve had more than typical. Fourteen is sort of normal for an entire season, and we’ve already reached that at the midpoint. On average, a season’s fourth hurricane happens by mid-September, so we’re right on schedule for that. That said, only three per year on average become major, and the average date of a season’s third major hurricane is Oct. 28 – meaning we are far outpacing what’s usual when it comes to forming major hurricanes.

Apropos to total tropical activity, as measured by how much energy storms are extracting from warm seawaters and expending on strong winds, we’re 25% ahead of average for this point in the season.

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