Let’s start off with stating a few facts.

Since Robert Kraft took over as owner of the New England Patriots in 1994, he’s never had to stomach so much losing and mistake-driven play. As a season ticket holder for many years, he lived through some woeful seasons. But the 12 losses by the Patriots this season is the most under his rule.

The Patriots were 5-11 in Bill Belichick’s first season as head coach. New England hasn’t come close to that miserable mark until now.

This is the bottom of the barrel.

The dozen losses also represent the most Belichick has ever endured during his coaching career.

And, adding insult to injury, the 27-21 loss to Buffalo on Sunday assured the Patriots of finishing last in the AFC East for the first time in 23 years – Belichick’s first year at the helm.

That’s right. The Patriots have sunk lower than the New York Jets, everyone’s favorite punching bag and perennial cellar-dweller.

It almost seems like the perfect bookend with Belichick, doesn’t it?

Kraft reportedly made up his mind weeks ago that he was moving on from future Hall of Famer Belichick, a head coach who has been a part of six championships in New England, and is 16 wins away from tying Don Shula for the most all-time.

Deciding on a split wasn’t said to be the firmest decision, but how can Kraft possibly change his mind at this stage?

While the Patriots have certainly hit a low point, Kraft’s decision shouldn’t necessarily revolve around just what’s happened this season. It should be based on the team’s deterioration over time, and that includes Tom Brady’s final season.

Perhaps the fight the team has shown, how well the defense has played with little help from the offense, not to mention dealing with injuries to key players (Matthew Judon, Christian Gonzalez, Jabrill Peppers) is reason for pause.

The complete erosion of the offense, however, can’t be ignored. It’s the primary reason why there needs to be a change.

The players aren’t anywhere near good enough on that side of the ball. The offensive scheme seems outdated. The coaching staff is lacking. The offensive line is overmatched. The quarterbacks are far from championship material.

After a promising rookie season, quarterback Mac Jones has regressed to the point of being broken. Bailey Zappe? He battles like crazy, and shows a resilience Jones has lacked for the most part. But he’s in a developmental stage, and more as a backup.

He had three turnovers against the Bills. The offense had four overall. All in the first half. After 17 straight seasons with a positive turnover differential, the Patriots are a minus-10 this season, with 17 takeaways and 27 giveaways.

Basically, the offense has been a mistake waiting to happen whether Jones was at quarterback or Zappe.

While Belichick doesn’t coach offense, he provides the personnel as the de facto general manager. Between the draft and free agency he has failed on that side of the ball.

The team had obvious needs at tackle and receiver and yet he spent his first three picks on defensive players in the 2023 draft. He didn’t give the offense side of the ball a thought.

He neglected to provide competent help at tackle, meaning the offensive line – and by extension the quarterback – has suffered all season because of that. He may have hit on Pop Douglas at receiver in the later rounds, but that’s hardly enough.

Is Belichick’s philosophy going to change if he returns? Is Belichick the general manager going to do a better job of arming Belichick the coach if he stays?

Or, if Kraft opts to bring in a completely new general manager, not someone who’s been affiliated with Belichick in the past, would Belichick stay under those terms?

The best way to fix this mess is investing in the offense, rebooting the operation, and drafting the right quarterback in the upcoming draft.

Given how it has played out, it’s hard to imagine Belichick all of the sudden thinking offense first and making that his priority. Not after such moves as putting Matt Patricia, a longtime defensive coach, in charge of the offense last season and expecting him to teach a completely new scheme.

That’s not on Patricia. It’s on Belichick.

And while it was thought Bill O’Brien would be an improvement, and solve all of their offensive woes, that hasn’t been the case, not with a suspect offensive line, and no weapons at his disposal. Beyond that, the offense not only lacks players, but it lacks creativity. Change is needed.

While it’s hard to fathom a Patriots sideline without Belichick, Kraft can’t be swayed by sentiment. As great as Belichick has been, he’s left the team short in the area that matters most in today’s NFL.

The facts are hard to ignore. Twelve losses, on top of the disintegration of the offense, screams for a change.

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