The seeds are in, the preliminary rounds are done and the stage is set. State tournament time, the highlight of the high school basketball season, is about to begin.
On the girls’ side, there will be upstarts and favorites, stars and breakout players, and teams that seize the moment to make a memorable run. Here’s one reporter’s take on how it might unfold, particularly at the tournaments – Classes AA North and South, A South and B South – that will take place at the Portland Expo and Cross Insurance Arena.
FIVE X-FACTOR PLAYERS
Caroline Hartley is the top scorer for Scarborough, averaging 15.7 points per game this season. Derek Davis/Staff Photographer
Ruth Boles, Cheverus senior forward: Maddie Fitzpatrick is the dynamic do-it-all force for the undefeated Stags, the top seed in AA North, but a regional title run will require a big effort from Boles. She and Fitzpatrick are the team’s top rebounders – Fitzpatrick herself called Boles the state’s best – and is a go-to player for tough baskets inside. The battle under the basket can decide late-round games, where every possession matters, and Boles gives Cheverus an edge.
Dakota Shipley, Brunswick senior forward: The Dragons’ greatest asset may be their versatility, exemplified in their 6-foot forward, who can score 20 points, grab 10 rebounds and score both inside and from the perimeter. If Shipley’s scoring regularly, Brunswick, the defending A South champion, will be a tough out again.
Caroline Hartley, Scarborough senior forward: Hartley is the top scorer for the Red Storm, averaging 15.7 points per game. She will need to step up in the tournament for Scarborough, the third seed at 13-5, to come out of the AA South side. Proven tournament scorers dot the field so if the games take on a back-and-forth rhythm, the Red Storm will look to Hartley.
Kylie Lamson, Thornton Academy sophomore guard: When Lamson went down with an ankle injury Dec. 28, Thornton was 6-1. Without its floor general, the team went 4-7. She’s back for the tournament, giving the Trojans someone who can handle the ball under pressure, distribute and shoot. Does her return make the Trojans the favorite they were thought to be early? It certainly will help.
Kytana Williamson, Medomak Valley junior guard: Williamson is a slasher who can pile up points in a hurry. She has the potential to be the highest scorer in the bracket. The Panthers would welcome it.
THREE THINGS WE WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE
1. South Portland coming out of AA South. The Red Riots had a terrific regular season, going 14-4 with 13 straight wins. But they’re as young a team as there is in the field, with no seniors and only two juniors. Experience helps at this stage, and South Portland will have to overcome that against seasoned teams.
2. A sleeper in AA North. Cheverus (18-0) and Oxford Hills (13-5) are on a collision course. Bangor (12-6), the region’s only other team over .500, lost to the Stags and Vikings by 20 and 24 points, respectively, in February.
3. A top-three seed falling early in A South. No. 1 Mt. Ararat, No. 2 Brunswick and No. 3 Gray-New Gloucester went 4-0 against their quarterfinal opponents, and each notched a win of 20 or more points.
THREE MATCHUPS WE WANT TO SEE
Oxford Hills players celebrated after defeating Cheverus 68-63 in double overtime in the Class AA North girls’ basketball final last season in Portland. Derek Davis/Staff Photographer
1. Cheverus vs. Oxford Hills in the AA North final. Last year’s final between the two, a 68-63 double-overtime win for Oxford Hills, was a thriller. Now both teams are at full strength, which could mean another classic.
2. Oceanside vs. Spruce Mountain in the B South final. A rematch of last year’s final would feature the top players from that game in Bailey Breen for Oceanside, and Jaydn Pingree and Aubrey Kachnovich for Spruce Mountain. Oceanside won 58-39 in December, but Spruce Mountain has won 11 straight.
3. Mt. Ararat vs. Brunswick in the A South final. The neighboring rivals are evenly matched, with 11 total points separating them in two regular-season games that were split. Both have size, both can score, and a showdown would likely be up for grabs in the final minutes.
STORY LINES TO FOLLOW
Will Gorham’s experience – all five starters are back from last year’s regional championship team – be too much to overcome in AA South? Will Oceanside find the scoring depth behind Breen needed to hold off the B South field? Can No. 5 Wells, with only nine players, hold up and make a run in B South? Can North Yarmouth Academy, No. 1 in C South at 17-1, close the gap if it plays Hall-Dale team, which beat the Panthers by 23 points?
THE REGIONAL CHAMPS WILL BE:
AA North, Oxford Hills: The Vikings are rolling and finally healthy. The defending champs outlast a strong Cheverus team.
AA South, Gorham: This is a battle-tested team that knows how to win.
A South, Mt. Ararat: The Eagles are talented, deep and able to win a shootout or a defensive struggle.
B South, Oceanside: The Mariners are motivated, there’s less pressure and there’s still Bailey Breen. Good combo.
C South, Hall-Dale: The Bulldogs haven’t lost yet to a Class C team.
D South, Waynflete: The Flyers are more tested than any Class D team, and they’ve fared well.
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