LEWISTON – A cool head, a steady hand and familiarity with your own market will help local businesses weather this economic slowdown.

That was the advice of Don Head of Head and Associates, the investment subsidiary of Androscoggin Bank, which combined with the bank’s trust division manages about $700 million. Head and his partner, Carl Gercke, addressed the Androscoggin County Chamber of Commerce breakfast Thursday morning with a presentation called “The Storm Before the Calm.”

“Clearly an economic slowdown is cooking,” said Head to a hearty crowd who braved icy roads to make it to the Ramada. “We’re fairly certain if there’s a recession it will be brief. We’re very confident (if there’s a recession) we’ll recover.”

The pair pointed to multiple national signs that the economy is slowing, from a decrease in jobs to dips in gross domestic product, declines in housing prices, higher costs for capital and trailing industrial sales.

“The slowdown has already begun,” said Gercke, pointing out that the decline in jobs in January was the first real confirmation of the the impact of the subprime mortgage mess.

But mitigating effects have begun as well. Head said big banks that were writing down heavy losses due to their risky lending practices are being recapitalized – often with money from overseas. The weak dollar is boosting exports and The Fed has cut interest rates.

“Business cycles have moderated,” he said.

That means a recession in 2008 won’t have nearly the power of recessions from decades ago, in part because of the easy transfer of information today and the quickness of manufacturers and markets to adjust.

For those who worry about an underperforming stock market, Head was reassuring again. He noted that from 1925 to 2007, stock prices ended the year higher than they began 70 percent of the time. A dollar invested in the stock market in 1925 would be worth about $3,000 80 years later.

“Things do work out,” he said.

Additionally, stocks rebound after a recession, generally enjoying a nice bump within a year.

While it behooves businesspeople to pay attention to national trends, he emphasized that they should be paying even closer attention to what their own markets are doing. States like Florida and California that enjoyed the effects of the subprime lending boom are bearing the brunt of its collapse. He echoed economist Charlie Colgan’s view that Maine doesn’t get the excessive highs of a booming economy, so it doesn’t get the lows when it crashes, either.

“He points out that we never have the extremes,” said Head.

Savvy businesspeople will watch the local and regional trends and adjust accordingly for what will likely be a short rough patch for Maine.

On the national level, don’t expect politics to do more than provide a stimulus gimmick. Head said the economy will likely be unaffected by the November elections. He said if you look at the history of recessions and recoveries in this country, you can’t pick out the election years or which party was in power. Besides, it’s likely to be moot.

“We should be in recovery (by then),” he said.