The economy may be slowing, as members of the Federal Reserve keep telling us, but not much cooling has shown up in the job market. Unemployment, at 4.6 percent, remains at the lowest level since well before the last recession.
Sectors that are supposed to be hitting the brakes, notably the auto industry and home construction, have done little to create slack in the number of available workers. And booming areas, namely services, retailing and health care, continue to add to payrolls.
A fresh reading occurs Friday, with the October employment report. Economist Robert Dederick expects it to show joblessness inching slightly higher, to 4.7 percent, as payrolls grow by a mild 110,000 positions.
“Hiring has grown subdued, but firings don’t seem to be growing, even though the economy is stuttering and sputtering,” said Dederick, of RGD Economics.
While broad swaths of the economy are struggling, the problems have been limited to domestic automakers and housing, he said.
“The rest of the economy is pushing ahead, with no signs we are headed into the tank,” Dederick said. “Businesses are in a watch-and-wait mode, but the outlook is positive.”
Consumers still confident
Get ready for a less than scary report Tuesday (Halloween) on consumer confidence. It is seen rising above 108 from a reading of 104.5 last month.
Doomsayers “have been wringing their hands about the negative wealth effects from declining home prices,” said economist Scott Anderson of Wells Fargo & Co. in Minneapolis.
Overlooked is the fact consumers have gotten a $70 billion bonus in discretionary spending power in recent weeks, thanks to falling prices for gasoline, he said.
Additionally, the stock market has created nearly $2.7 trillion in new wealth since the beginning of 2006, according to Anderson, “and that should translate into $505 billion in additional household spending.”
Bear or bull?
The Dow Jones industrial average hit additional records in recent days, but other measures of the stock market are lagging. Whether that means the bull market will totter is anyone’s guess.
Over the last six months, the top 100 companies have outperformed the rest of the market, after showing negative returns relative to other blue-chips going back to 2002, says Chicago investment manager Marshall Front.
“Higher interest rates globally have caused speculators to pull back and seek the safety of large-cap companies,” said Front, of Front Barnett Associates.
His bottom line: small company stocks remain vulnerable “as investors seek larger, higher quality companies with better defined prospects during a period of economic slowdown.”
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