Sometimes political irony is so stupendous that it takes your breath away.

The current machinations of the Maine legislative leadership are in this category. While professing to want to defeat the 1 percent tax cap proposal of Carol Palesky, they are actually pushing for a June vote on the issue, a move that will virtually assure passage of the measure.

Why is June rather than November the absolute wrong time for those who wish to defeat the tax cap proposal?

At least six reasons leap to mind:

First, the Republican portion of a June vote will feature a much more conservative cohort than in the general election (perhaps as high as 40 percent). Conservatives simply vote in Republican primaries in greater percentages than they do in the general election. They are also the Republicans most likely to support the tax cap.

Second, the Democratic portion of that June vote contains a relatively high proportion of conservatives as well. It is one of the great myths of Maine politics that liberals dominate Democratic primaries. With astonishingly few exceptions, the more moderate or even conservative of Democratic candidates usually wins statewide and 2nd Congressional District contests.

Think of John Baldacci, think of Mike Michaud. And remember Joe Brennan, even later in his career when he was defeated for statewide office, easily won his nominations against more liberal opponents, including Tom Allen.

Third, the reason for this moderate-conservative voting pattern is the importance of the Franco-American vote in Democratic primaries. Franco-American voters are the most conservative of all that party’s building blocs and currently favor the tax cap by wide margins. The Franco-American vote for tax cap will be decisive this June.

Fourth, Democrats who dislike the cap but expect to get a boost from a high Portland area turnout are in for a shock. That is because the voters of Portland – liberal, moderate and conservative – have just received the jolt of their property taxes going up 150 percent to 250 percent in a single year.

Do not look for a liberal landslide in Portland to bail out an anti-tax cap coalition in June.

Fifth, the able leaders of the cap campaign, Phil Harriman and Eric Cianchette, will be able to draw on substantial Republican and business financial support for their campaign. They will raise more money and faster money than their opponents, a big advantage in a short campaign of less than six weeks.

The tax cap proposal already has very wide and deep support; it will not take much to hold that support for a few weeks no matter what the anti-tax cap forces do.

Sixth, tax caps can be defeated, but it takes considerable time to erode the support for the idea of a quick and simple tax fix that can’t be tampered with by politicians. It also takes a lot of money, usually a 2-1 advantage, something that will simply not be possible for the anti-side if the election is held in June. A long campaign, not a short one, favors the opposition.

So, those who don’t want a tax cap are doing what is most likely to result in one.

But what about those who favor a tax cap? They, too, have it completely backwards. Carol Palesky and her followers don’t want the election in June when they have the best chance of winning. They want it in November when they have far less chance.

How’s that for a double irony?

But back to the legislative leadership. Why are they making this truly dumb move? They simply don’t want to run against both Republicans and the attractions of the tax cap from now until November, while Republicans seem to both want the tax cap on the ballot now but not later.

Democrats are even thinking of putting a competing measure on the ballot in June. Another very bad idea.

While it is extremely unlikely that their proposal for a one cent increase in the sales tax would beat a tax cap – I have truly never heard of any tax beating an anti-tax proposal in the same election – it is possible that a confusing competing measure would hold down the Palesky proposal to a plurality. This would simply ensure that it is on the ballot again in November when they’re all running.

A final irony: A June vote will virtually assure the passage of the Palesky tax cap. And that will absolutely require a substantial raising of the sales and/or income tax, thus forcing Gov. Baldacci to break his commitment to avoid adding to Maine’s overall state and local tax burden.

The leadership in the Maine Senate seems hell-bent on making Baldacci the only Democratic governor (except Clinton Clausen who died in office) since World War II to have but a single term.

The lunacy of it all does rather take your breath away.

Chris Potholm is professor of government at Bowdoin College, president of a national polling company and a writer, analyst and speaker on Maine’s political scene. He did polling work for supporters of Question 1A during the last election cycle, but is not working with any group for the June election.

He can be reached at The Potholm Group, 182 Hildreth Road, Harpswell, Maine 04079 or by e-mail at [email protected].