Merrill and LaMarche should have enough money to get recognized. Don’t count them out.

I have a bias when it comes to elections. I prefer ones where there is high citizen interest and an unpredictable outcome. I don’t think it is good for democracy if a contest is deemed to be over three months before Election Day. When a blowout is predicated, the differences in candidate positions on issues are not analyzed in much depth. Some issues don’t even get discussed.

Will the upcoming gubernatorial contest be close? A poll conducted in July by Strategic Marketing Services suggests it might not be. Democratic Governor John Baldacci leads Republican Chandler Woodcock by a 42 to 24 percent margin. Previous polls showed them in a virtual dead heat.

Could the race become tighter? Absolutely. That same poll revealed that 42 percent of Mainers believe that the state is headed in the wrong direction, and 27 percent were still undecided. Everyone but Baldacci has low name recognition. Things could change; as the campaign heats up, Woodcock might pull closer to Baldacci. If this happens, most of the attention will be on the jockeying between Baldacci and Woodcock.

However, a new dynamic could also be formed: the non-major party candidates could suddenly become much more significant to the outcome. All of a sudden, these candidates (often derisively labeled as “minor”) might unexpectedly get a lot of attention.

Don’t be surprised if they are portrayed as “spoilers” by the Woodcock and Baldacci campaigns. Their argument: don’t “waste” your vote on an independent or minor party candidate who has no chance to win.

If this tactic is tried, I believe most Mainers will reject it. We have elected two independent governors since 1974. The majority of voters don’t identify with a political party. The independent streak in Maine is still the dominant force in our electorate.

So let’s look at a few of these candidates. The two that have the most potential to affect the outcome are Barbara Merrill of Appleton and Pat LaMarche of Yarmouth. Merrill is an independent and LaMarche is the nominee of the Green Independent Party.

Merrill is a first-term state representative who was elected as a Democrat. However after just a year in Augusta, she became an independent. She disagrees with how the Democrats deal with budgetary issues and believes that “we need a more humble state government, one that doesn’t try to inject itself into every aspect of our lives.”

Merrill wants to cut governmental regulations. One way is to have industries, legislators and state employees work together to justify every regulation. According to press reports, Merrill does not object to casinos.

The environment is important to her. She recently ran a television ad that strongly criticized the Legislature and Baldacci Administration’s actions involving the time-table for cleaning up the Androscoggin River.

LaMarche is the director of Eastern Maine Medical Center’s Children’s Miracle Network. She ran for governor in 1998 and got 6.8 percent of the vote. As a Green, she also ran for U.S. vice-president in 2004.

One of her major issues is health care. She has a HealthCare ambulance that is traveling the state promoting her plan for improved health care for Mainers. Specifically, she wants to create pharmacy, dental and medical schools in Maine.

She supports expanding legalizing gambling. LaMarche believes that the money a casino would bring in could help pay for state programs. She is in favor of having a requirement that they purchase a minimum amount of products from Maine businesses.

At her party’s annual convention in May, she supported the idea of increasing the sales tax seasonally. This could help lessen the burden on taxpayers. Year-round residents wouldn’t be severely impacted if they timed their purchases accordingly. She stated that “The locals will know when to buy their cars.”

Merrill is at 3 percent in the Strategic Marketing Services poll. LaMarche is at 2.5 percent. Both of them are clean-elections candidates and have qualified for public funds. They should have enough money to get recognized.

Strong campaigns by Merrill and LaMarche could force Baldacci and Woodcock to address issues they would rather ignore. For example, Merrill and LaMarche could press them on their opposition to casinos. LaMarche’s idea of increasing the sales tax seasonally might also get on the political radar. Merrill’s attempts to capitalize on the controversy surrounding the timetable for cleaning up the Androscoggin River might get a more honest public discussion.

Merrill could team up with Woodcock and challenge Baldacci from the right on budgetary policy. LaMarche could press Baldacci from the left on health care policies, in particular Dirigo. All three could ask Woodcock how his social and religious beliefs would affect future public policy.

Strong campaigns by LaMarche and Merrill would change the dynamics of the race in unpredictable ways. The contest could be less scripted and more open to an unexpected outcome. Who knows, one might even win. Shouldn’t that be how elections are supposed to be?

Karl Trautman is the chairperson of the Department of Social Sciences at Central Maine Community College. He was a policy analyst with the Michigan Legislature from 1997 to 2001.