If a person were content to merely read opinion polls about Social Security or to watch many conservatives dive for cover from President Bush’s plans to drastically reshape the program, he or she might think the fight is over.

Such optimism, however, is premature. This fight is just getting started, and it will deteriorate into an ugly endeavor before it’s through.

The Heritage Foundation, a conservative Washington, D.C., think tank has one of its scholars working in Maine. As a visiting fellow for the Maine Heritage Policy Center, James Hamilton will edit a new publication called “Social Security in Maine.” For those familiar with either Heritage group, the publication’s point of view won’t come as a surprise. It will advocate for dismantling the current social contract of Social Security.

Political consultant Erik Potholm, who is from Harpswell, may also be involved in the fight. USA Next, a Republican front group that receives significant funding from the pharmaceutical industry, has launched its own crusade against the AARP and any other group that would dare to buck President Bush on his plans to eviscerate Social Security. Potholm is a partner with Stevens Reed Curcio & Potholm, a Virginia firm that specializes in conservative media campaigns. Rick Reed – the Reed in the company’s name – has been asked to work with USA Next.

In addition to discussions with Reed, USA Next has hired a consultant who worked on the ad campaign by the discredited Swift Boat Veterans for Truth. Already, the tone of USA Next’s attacks against the AARP have been revealed. An ad that appeared on the Web site of The American Spectator magazine implies that the AARP favors gay marriage and somehow opposes American soldiers. It asks: What is the AARP’s real agenda? Click on the ad, and the viewer is redirected to USA Next’s Web site, which doesn’t bother to back up the ad with any sort of details.

They’re peddling a faulty message, so they’re attacking the competition. The AARP will be fully slimed, even though it backed the president on his disastrous adventure to add a prescription-drug benefit to Medicare. Its allegiance in the last fight won’t earn it a pass in this one.

Into this steps Rep. Mike Michaud, who will hold town hall meetings on Social Security today in Lewiston, Norway and Fryeburg. Unlike President Bush, who’s also taken his ideas for Social Security on the road, Michaud’s audience won’t be screened to make sure only his supporters get a chance to speak. Nonetheless, we suspect that the congressman will get an earful about how important Social Security is in the lives of retirees.

So far, Republican Sens. Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins have expressed marked skepticism about the president’s privatization plans. Democrats Michaud and Tom Allen firmly oppose them.

For about one in every five retirees, Social Security accounts for all of their income. And as the number of defined-benefit pension plans available to workers continues to decline, Social Security will become an even more important safety net that ensures seniors can live with a modicum of dignity.

According to The Associated Press, the Republican National Committee will treat Social Security as an extension of the presidential campaign. USA Next plans to kick in another $10 million, as will a group that calls itself Progress for America. The AARP and a consortium of liberal-leaning groups could unleash a $30 million war chest.

In all, the two sides could spend more than $100 million fighting over Social Security.

The AARP and others who oppose the privatization of Social Security will get beat up. To convince the public to turn on a program it overwhelmingly supports, privatizers have to go after its defenders. Instead of asking what the AARP’s real agenda is, people should be asking about the agenda of those who would undo one of the most successful anti-poverty programs in history.